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#1
11-26-2007, 04:02 PM
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Re: 63o - hand vs Private Joker
[ QUOTE ]
I think 4-betting is too much because too often PJ will have JJ or TT here. Also it'll be an easy fold for him with an overpair when he'd probably bet again on the river with it (so we win the same, lose less). [/ QUOTE ] Given his range of hands (AJ, AA, KK, QQ, maybe KJ along with of course the JJ and TT), I think 63 kills his range. Some thoughts on the turn: It's a 4-bet cap. If we are ahead, we need to charge the drawer. In addition, we need to charge PJ to draw to counterfeits and better two pair etc. If PJ does have a set, he will raise on the river, and I am perfectly willing to fold to a river raise. Garland 
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#2
11-26-2007, 04:29 PM
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Re: 63o - hand vs Private Joker
[ QUOTE ]
Given his range of hands (AJ, AA, KK, QQ, maybe KJ along with of course the JJ and TT), I think 63 kills his range. Some thoughts on the turn: It's a 4-bet cap. If we are ahead, we need to charge the drawer. In addition, we need to charge PJ to draw to counterfeits and better two pair etc. If PJ does have a set, he will raise on the river, and I am perfectly willing to fold to a river raise. [/ QUOTE ] If that really is his range and it's all weighted equally, then capping is clearly right - I just think that his range is weighted more towards the hands that crush us than the ones that we beat (i.e. he won't 3-bet every time with one pair, but he'll always do it with a set). Letting him draw to his 5-8 outer is tempered by the times that we are way behind and save a bet (or two bets, if the river comes bad and we can just check-fold), and the times that the river is a blank and we make the same amount (by calling twice) as capping the turn and leading.
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#3
11-26-2007, 04:46 PM
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Re: 63o - hand vs Private Joker
gosh i think it's a lot closer to a fold than to a 4bet, sheesh
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#4
11-26-2007, 04:51 PM
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Re: 63o - hand vs Private Joker
"gosh i think it's a lot closer to a fold than to a 4bet, sheesh"
Agreed, but it probably becomes a cap if you are already down a million dollars, are potentially steaming or appear to be, or if the villain thinks you are capable of completely effing around. -Michael
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#5
11-26-2007, 04:56 PM
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Re: 63o - hand vs Private Joker
good points michael.
garland often seems to post very conservatively in my opinion which is why i was very surprised to see him endorse the cap. i guess also the propensity for everyone to raise the turn today when they pick up a flush draw might also come into play here more than i thought, since pj could be putting snowball on that and 3betting a big pocket pair to charge him. i guess this kind of hand does depend a lot on table image and reads and so on.
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