pca step 2 question

[SavvyMike]

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You are acting like you have enough of a chip lead to coast into the top 2 spots. This is not the case. It's not like this is a satellite situation where there are 11 people left and the top 10 place. There are 3 people and top 2 place and your chip lead is anything but commanding. Are you just going to fold unless you get AA/KK/QQ (not even sure if you'd play these hands) and hope the other guy busts the shortstack? You are going to find yourself getting blinded into being the shortstack a good % of the time. If you are finding yourself bubbling a lot of tourneys, this might have something to do with it.

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First, I'm not planning on using my chip position to creep into the top two spots. I'm planning on using my chip position to pick up uncontested pots and to push around the other players. I'm comfortable folding a strong hand pre-flop in this spot because I think I have more to gain by waiting for a better spot, it's not like the button limped, he opened with a huge overbet (despite the description above, I believe the button opened for T1500.) The blinds are still pretty low, jme's M before the hand started was just below 18, losing this pot brings his M down to 6 and puts him in a spot where he will now have to get lucky to win as the short stack. Considering that the play is now shorthanded, jme's situation is a little more dire, but I still don't think he's in such bad shape that he has not choice but to shove here. Even if the guy did only open for 3x the BB, I still don't know if I want to risk crippling myself to knock this player out in a spot where I'm most likely coin flipping, though not so likely to be dominated or have him dominating me. I think the way the actual hand played out jme was somewhere in the 70% favorite range. I don't know about you, but I've lost quite a few hands where I was a 70% favorite. Not that I don't take those shots when I need to, but when 2nd gets a prize and 3rd does not, I have to reconsider my strategy.

I just don't understand how a good player who thinks they have an edge over the other remaining players would want to put themselves in a situation where they could get unlucky and blow the whole tournament. I would go all-in if this was a normal tournament and I was playing for first place, but in this situation I am playing for second, which changes everything.

After losing that hand I don't have enough chips to play poker, I just have to find spots to move all my chips in, which is not a position I'm really comfortable being in when there are 3 players left and 2 get paid.

The benefit of knocking out this guy third at the risk of becoming the short stack just does not seem like a wise move to me. I'd rather let those other guys try and knock each other out while I focus on maintaining the lead while waiting for a better spot to try knocking one of the other two players out myself.