Simple Basic Newbie Question......

[srodgers1981]

These are actual hands from games that I was in. I’m trying to learn to count outs. I would appreciate it if someone could look at the below samples and show me what the outs are and how you came up with them... pretty basic stuff but I'm having a hard time seeing the right outs.
Thanks..

[5h 7s]
*** FLOP *** [Kd 3h Jh]
*** TURN *** [Kd 3h Jh] [9h]

[Ad 2c]
*** FLOP *** [Jc Ks Kh]
*** TURN *** [Jc Ks Kh] [As]

[Jc 8d]
*** FLOP *** [6c Jd Kh]
*** TURN *** [6c Jd Kh] [4h]

[2h Ks]
*** FLOP *** [2c 5s Qh]
*** TURN *** [2c 5s Qh] [5d]

[JSmith2007]

Hand #1 - I think you may be drawing dead here. Depending on how many players are in the pot, and previous betting actions and reads, it's likely your 5 of hearts is no good anyway, should a river heart hit. Assuming you have the best heart in the hand, you'd have 9 outs. There are 13 hearts in the deck, minus the 4 you need for a flush already seen, gives you 9 more suited hearts to come. Most people will obviously adjust this number because the likelihood NOBODY else had a heart and folded somewhere along the line is unlikely. I'm going to say you've got ~7 outs, maybe drawing dead though.

Hand #2 - Again, you can't just count outs based on hands like this. You need betting action and reads to put your opponents on a hand. Assuming he doesn't have a king here, you don't need to be drawing to anything. You're ahead. If he has a king, you're drawing to 3 aces. Maybe 2 for adjustments.

Hand #3 - Again, betting action and reads. Assuming no king, you're probably ahead and having opponents are drawing/counting outs to you. Assuming he has a king, you're drawing to 6 outs. 3 jacks and 3 8's still left in the deck to make a better hand than a pair of kings.

Hand #4 - This one is a little easier, but still could use betting action and reads. Assuming opponent has a queen, you're drawing to 6 outs again. 3 2's and 3 kings left in the deck. Assuming opponent has a 5, you're drawing dead (0 outs), more or less, get out of this hand before the river hits.

[MattGN]

(Keep in mind I am relatively new, so this may not be correct.)

Hand #1

FLOP - You're 4.2% to hit that 3-flush by the river. When calling bets, keep in mind you'll need to see the river in order for the percentage to be viable.

TURN - You have 9 outs (you see 3 hearts on the board, plus one in your hand, and with 13 cards per suit, there are nine left). This amounts to about 20% to hit on the river.

Hand #2

FLOP - There is no low straight draw for you here, so I assume you'll have found weakness and be looking to pair either your two or your ace on the turn. You have 6 outs or 13% to hit on the turn, and by the river about 24%.

TURN - You have 2 outs to hit your ace (4.4%) and 3 outs for your two (7%).

Here's the resource I used to determine this, see if you can't figure out the last two.

http://www.pokerupdate.com/pokerodds.htm

[I think a fairly simple rule is that if you want to hit by the river from the flop you multiply your outs by 4 and add 2 and that is your percentage, and if you want to hit by the turn from the flop you multiply your outs by 2 and add 2 for your percentage.]

[srodgers1981]

This is what I came up with for the correct answers to COUNTING OUTS.
If anyone sees anything wrong please let me know.
Look forward to the replies… I’m still learning….

[5h 7s]
*** FLOP *** [Kd 3h Jh] six outs: 3 fives 3 sevens
*** TURN *** [Kd 3h Jh] [9h] 9 outs: but I don’t believe 5 high flush will hold up

[Ad 2c]
*** FLOP *** [Jc Ks Kh] 3 outs: 3 aces
*** TURN *** [Jc Ks Kh] [As] two outs: 2 aces

[Jc 8d]
*** FLOP *** [6c Jd Kh] 5 outs: 2 jacks 3 eights
*** TURN *** [6c Jd Kh] [4h] 2 outs: 2 jacks

[2h Ks]
*** FLOP *** [2c 5s Qh] 5 outs: 2 deuces 3 kings
*** TURN *** [2c 5s Qh] [5d] 2 outs: 2 deuces

[JSmith2007]

Hand #1 flop - You cannot assume you have six outs there, being fives and sevens. Most likely if you're in the hand with action, someone is going to have a king or jack. That is why I initially said I'd need to see betting action and/or reads to see if X is really an out.

Hand #3 turn - Why do you go from 5 to 2? Is two pair (an 8) no good now? Why did you get this conclusion? I would say you're 5 outs stay the same from flop to turn here.

Hand #4 turn - 5 to 2 outs again. If you think your opponent has a 5, you're drawing dead to no outs, no matter the card. If you think he has a queen, then you have 5 outs - 2 2's and 3 kings. I don't see why you would adjust to 2 deuces, because a deuce wouldn't help you in anyway really unless you thought he had a queen. If he has a queen, then a king would be fine.

[srodgers1981]

JSmith2007
Thanks for responding.. I’ll try to show you my reasoning and if I’m wrong somewhere please let me know what the correct answer should be. I’m looking at COUNTING OUTS as to what cards would make my hand the “best hand”. If I’m going about this all the wrong way

Remember this exercise is just to learn how to COUNT OUTS… assume everyone just limps for the below mentioned hands…

[5h 7s]
*** FLOP *** [Kd 3h Jh] six outs: 3 fives 3 sevens The best hand I can make so far is Trip 5’s/7’s… hence 6 outs
*** TURN *** [Kd 3h Jh] [9h] 9 outs: but I don’t believe 5 high flush will hold up. With four hearts out, the best hand I can make is 5 high flush

[Ad 2c]
*** FLOP *** [Jc Ks Kh] 3 outs: 3 aces I have an OVERCARD so the best hand I can make is Trip A’s… hence 3 outs.
*** TURN *** [Jc Ks Kh] [As] two outs: 2 aces. The best hand I can make here is A’s full… hence 2 outs

[Jc 8d]
*** FLOP *** [6c Jd Kh] 5 outs: 2 jacks 3 eights. The best hand I can make is Trip J’s or Pair of 8’s… hence 5 outs
*** TURN *** [6c Jd Kh] [4h] 2 outs: 2 jacks… The best hand I can make is Trips J’s… hence two outs

[2h Ks]
*** FLOP *** [2c 5s Qh] 5 outs: 2 deuces 3 kings. The best hand I can make is Trip 2’s or Pair of K’s… hence 5 outs
*** TURN *** [2c 5s Qh] [5d] 2 outs: 2 deuces. The best hand I can make is Trip 2’s, although I could catch a K on the River, so should TOTAL OUTS still be 5?

[SoCalRugger]

[ QUOTE ]
[5h 7s]
*** FLOP *** [Kd 3h Jh] six outs: 3 fives 3 sevens The best hand I can make so far is Trip 5’s/7’s… hence 6 outs

[/ QUOTE ]
I think you're thinking about outs the wrong way. An out should be a card that, if it falls, makes your hand the best hand. If a 5 or a 7 falls on the turn, it's still very unlikely that you have the best hand. You need to hit one of 6 cards on both the turn AND river to make the best hand. This doesn't count as having 6 outs on the flop. I'd consider it drawing nearly dead.

Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Kd Jh 3h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Kc Ah 960 96.97 30 3.03 0 0.00 0.970
7s 5h 30 3.03 960 96.97 0 0.00 0.030

An example of having 6 outs is if you hold AK on a T52 flop, and you think your opponent has JT. There, any ace or king makes your hand the best, so you have 6 outs - a 25% chance to win if you were to go all-in of the flop.

Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 5s Td 2h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ac Kc 247 24.95 743 75.05 0 0.00 0.249
Ts Jh 743 75.05 247 24.95 0 0.00 0.751

[Small Fry]

[ QUOTE ]
JSmith2007
Thanks for responding.. I’ll try to show you my reasoning and if I’m wrong somewhere please let me know what the correct answer should be. I’m looking at COUNTING OUTS as to what cards would make my hand the “best hand ”. If I’m going about this all the wrong way

Remember this exercise is just to learn how to COUNT OUTS… assume everyone just limps for the below mentioned hands…

[5h 7s]
*** FLOP *** [Kd 3h Jh] six outs: 3 fives 3 sevens The best hand I can make so far is Trip 5’s/7’s… hence 6 outs
*** TURN *** [Kd 3h Jh] [9h] 9 outs: but I don’t believe 5 high flush will hold up. With four hearts out, the best hand I can make is 5 high flush

[/ QUOTE ]

<font color="blue">You're opponents could easily have a pair of Kings or Jacks or possibly already have two pair. A set cannot be ruled out. I would not count hitting just one 5 or 7 as an out. On the turn you have 9 outs to a flush but as you already mentioned it might not be good.

I would say the best you could do from the flop is to go runner runner, either 5,5 or 7,7. This is probably less than a 5% chance of happening. Just hitting either a 5 or 7 on the turn is about 12% or 7:1 odds. And it still will not be best if a player had pocket jacks or kings. In other words, you cannot make the nuts. </font>

[ QUOTE ]
[Ad 2c]
*** FLOP *** [Jc Ks Kh] 3 outs: 3 aces I have an OVERCARD so the best hand I can make is Trip A’s… hence 3 outs.
*** TURN *** [Jc Ks Kh] [As] two outs: 2 aces. The best hand I can make here is A’s full… hence 2 outs

[/ QUOTE ]

<font color="blue">Once again you could be way behind to a hand like A,10 or K,J. Hitting the Ace on the turn is no help, with the exception that it gives you 2 outs on the river. This has about a 5% chance of happening, or odds of about 19:1 (I didn't confirm this number, so I might be off)</font>

[ QUOTE ]
[Jc 8d]
*** FLOP *** [6c Jd Kh] 5 outs: 2 jacks 3 eights. The best hand I can make is Trip J’s or Pair of 8’s… hence 5 outs
*** TURN *** [6c Jd Kh] [4h] 2 outs: 2 jacks… The best hand I can make is Trips J’s… hence two outs

[/ QUOTE ]

<font color="blue">I would not count the 8's on the flop. It will not give you the best hand. </font>

[ QUOTE ]
[2h Ks]
*** FLOP *** [2c 5s Qh] 5 outs: 2 deuces 3 kings. The best hand I can make is Trip 2’s or Pair of K’s… hence 5 outs
*** TURN *** [2c 5s Qh] [5d] 2 outs: 2 deuces. The best hand I can make is Trip 2’s, although I could catch a K on the River, so should TOTAL OUTS still be 5?

[/ QUOTE ]

<font color="blue">On the flop there is only one reason I would count the Kings. Because you already hit your 2. This gives you two pair. But as you so aptly demonstrated with your turn card thisis easily counterfitted. The 5 pairing now gives any other player with a king two pair also. So with the queen on the board the best you can do is tie. So on the turn I wouldn't count the kings as full outs. hitting a 2 is also problematic as it gives you a full house, 2's over 5's, but if another player has a 5 he has a better full house, 5's over 2's </font>

When counting outs you want to count cards cards that if you hit them with the next card they most likely give you the best hand. If you need to hit a card on both the turn and river you cannot count this as 1 out. he odds of having to hit a specific range of cards back to back drastically reduces the chance of the event actually happening.

[Lottery Larry]

[ QUOTE ]

[5h 7s]
*** FLOP *** [Kd 3h Jh]
*** TURN *** [Kd 3h Jh] [9h]

[/ QUOTE ]

You pretty much have no outs on either street (you expect to beat a 4h or 2h on the turn?) and probably shouldn't have seen a flop in the first place. There was DEFINATELY no reason to continue after the flop.

[ QUOTE ]

[Ad 2c]
*** FLOP *** [Jc Ks Kh]
*** TURN *** [Jc Ks Kh] [As]

[/ QUOTE ]

Both streets, I doubt your outs were any good. Again, treat as if you had none, since you're most likely playing for half a pot at BEST

[ QUOTE ]
[Jc 8d]
*** FLOP *** [6c Jd Kh]
*** TURN *** [6c Jd Kh] [4h]

[/ QUOTE ]

Flop- Technically 5 outs, but I'd treat as four depending on the players involved.
Turn- 3 outs... unless someone is playing your first hand

[ QUOTE ]
[2h Ks]
*** FLOP *** [2c 5s Qh]
*** TURN *** [2c 5s Qh] [5d]

[/ QUOTE ]

Flop- 5 outs
Turn- Same, unless a raising war breaks out.

[smbruin22]

wow, that 50 to 1 of hitting two pairs really makes me think about playing out of the small blind, although i'm already pretty tight anyway. and two low pairs have risk of counterfeiting.