NL50: AA 3 way on scary flop board facing pot size AI and a call

[oakrdrzfan]

Is pushing on this board after a pot size AI and a call too spewy? Is folding too weak? Short stacker is new to table, the caller is TAG. The SPR is right at the borderline for stacking off here i think

Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
LeggoPoker Hand History Converter

SB: $47.50
BB: $20
UTG: $58.15
UTG+1: $49.60
UTG+2: $61.50
MP1: $8.50
MP2: $7.50
CO: $12.35
Hero (BTN): $60.75

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BTN)
UTG folds, <font color="red">UTG+1 raises to $1</font>, 3 folds, CO calls $1, <font color="red">Hero raises to $4.75</font>, SB folds, BB calls $4.25, UTG+1 calls $3.75, CO folds

Flop: ($15.50) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $15.25 and is All-In</font>, UTG+1 calls $15.25, Hero pushes, calls or folds?

[The Eureka Kid]

This is a very tough spot, I'm leaning towards folding, but realising I'm going to be folding the best hand here some of the time. You haven't invested too much, this is a pretty bad flop, most of the time UTG+1 calls your shove he has you crushed. This is such a marginal spot I just fold and move on I think.

[rdrr]

It stinks, but you should probably fold.

[BalancePoint]

Probably fold I agree

[ranka]

Really? You all folding it?

Maybe its leak but I would push.

[Sounded Simple]

I agree with ranka.
There are many more combinations of overpairs and draws that you beat than there are sets and 2-pairs.

Also remember you can win a side pot even if your beat by BB. UTG+1 may have QQ-99 and cant let it go.

I shove and ride some variance.

[AllTheCheese]

Shove's fine. BB is clearly an idiot. There's nothing to stop TAG from having Queens or 77 here. It's close enough though where neither play deserves chastisement.

[Brimstead]

hmmm, i'd say its 50-50. What have you seen utg+1 min raise with PF? Would he do this with TT-QQ? or would he do it with 22-99?

I think that if you can't put this guy on a mid PP before the flop then you should shove, there are plenty of pair+draw combos here that a lot of the time you are ahead.

[RapidEvolution]

I fold here. UTG+1's call says he has no interest in isolating shortie and wants your stack in the pot. Aside from that, the situation is marginal at best and you've only got 10% of your stack in at this point.

[AllTheCheese]

[ QUOTE ]
UTG+1's call says he has no interest in isolating shortie and wants your stack in the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

How can you know this? How come it doesn't mean he's drawing? How come it doesn't mean he's got Queens and doesn't want to put too much money in the middle. He could have a set and be trapping, no doubt. But nothing about his action so far tells us that for sure.