Commitment Threshold question (theory)

[Peleus]

Hi all,

I've got a quick question in regards to the commitment threshold, and what we can do to avoid situations like the following. This is a hypothetical hand.

Our image is Tight Agressive
Villian is also Tight Agressive, he is tricky, commonly check raising. We estimate he wouldn't get all in with less then a set so getting in with anything else is -ev.

We have Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

We're in position and effective stacks are 100bb.

Villian raises 3.5BB and we call, blinds fold.

(Pot 8.5BB)
Flop comes Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Good two pair but a fairly co-ordinated board.

Villian checks and we bet a slightly less then pot 7.5bb to protect our hand and for value as we think we're ahead, villian calls against his agressive nature.

Pot (23.5BB)
Turn comes 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Villian checks.

This is my problem - We suspect villian is most likely on a heart flush draw. Mabye even something like A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. We're at the commitment threshold so we need to decide if we are commited. We said before that villian wouldn't get all in for less then a set, which we can't beat so we're not commited, and commonly check raises. How do you protect a hand in this situation?

Obviously we don't want to give away a free card on such a draw heavy board, but on the other side we shouldn't bet to force out draws because we are going past the commitment threshold without being commited, and thus making a mistake in that sense as well.

I know this is a very specific example, but similar situations come up a lot when you are not commited.

I suppose the point of it all, and my question is how do you protect your hands from draws, once you're at the commitment threshold, but you are not commited?

[Dallas Dru]

well first of all we are betting on this board and even pushing if they want to go with it. there is way to much pot equity for us to fold even to a nut flush draw. don't hesitate to bet this at all and if you do your making a -ev decision.

[crushednuts]

Normally a set wouldn't check into you on two streets with this board. Here I am way more worried about taking this guy to valuetown than being worried about being beat. I don't think you have to worry too much about being committed. Bet 3/4 of the pot and call a push

[Sean Fraley]

This seems to be a common misunderstanding about the concept of the commitment threshold. The commitment threshold is the point where you need to form you commitment plan. In other words it is the point where you need to decide under what circumstances you are committed and what circumstances might change that decision. It is not the point where you are actually committed to the pot. In general that would be when you have

A) Put more than 1/3 of you stack in the pot because

B) You are building a pot for value, as opposed to betting as a bluff/semi-bluff and

C) There is a possibility of facing further bets from villain because he can raise you or bet again on a later street.

In this situation it is perfectly OK to bet and charge a likely draw. You can fold if check-raised, and if villain bets on the river you can decide to call or not based on how likely you are to be beat since even if it puts more than 1/3 of your stack in, you are closing the action.

[Dallas Dru]

[ QUOTE ]
In this situation it is perfectly OK to bet and charge a likely draw. You can fold if check-raised, and if villain bets on the river you can decide to call or not based on how likely you are to be beat since even if it puts more than 1/3 of your stack in, you are closing the action.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah you want the value out of this hand and want to take it to value town so bet and if re raised you can fold.

[Peleus]

But if we make another big bet of say 23bb, and we get crai and fold, haven't we put in a 1/3 of a stack and folded, hence made a mistake?

[Sean Fraley]

[ QUOTE ]
But if we make another big bet of say 23bb, and we get crai and fold, haven't we put in a 1/3 of a stack and folded, hence made a mistake?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not necessarily. Basically, the purpose for this concept is to avoid exposing us to nasty bluffs. In this case, we would have a viable plan. We bet having already assumed that any raise from villain means he has a hand that beats us and is not bluffing. Therefore we can fold safely. If he calls, we are most likely ahead and got good value.

This concept is not a straight jacket that limits our play. It is simply a tool we use to help us plan our hands in a way that makes our decisions easier.

[Peleus]

No worries, seems to make sense. Thanks for your replies.