Am i way off here (-ev?)

[Machmood]

Im sure its -EV as im not the first guy to bet sports and try to find an easy bet. This being said i know parlays r -ev, but hear me out. If you parlay a team that is a hudge favorite, lets say -400 or higher on money line, and take a team you feel is gettting a good line between -.05 and -2.5(less then 3) would it make sense to parlay these 2 teams. My theory being you take a hudge favorite and parlay it with a team that u feel is at worst 50/50 with the points and u get that 50 50 team getting odds . let me just show u and it may make more sense
Buffalo -2.5
NO saints -550

This parlay is +126, that seems pretty good to me concidering u can almost chalk up a saints win, and get +126 on the bills -2.5??

[Thremp]

[n2p]

If you can just chalk up a saints win why not just bet on them and forget about the Bills?

[Austiger]

I'm pretty sure you should not only avoid that bet, but sports betting altogether, along with anything else involving logic and money.

[thing85]

I want to do an animal pic too!

[Salmon]

You need to get a better handle on how to calculate EV. There's no such thing as a "lock" and like someone else said, if one bet were a lock, why not just bet it and not bother with the parlay? The truth is, unless there's some correlation between those two events, if you were to make this type of bet many, many times, the money you lost would outweigh the money you won.

[Rustjive]

On another note, Saints are now down by 10 and the Bills are down by 3.

[Machmood]

I'm new to the sports betting thing, but have followed NFL for years and concider myself EXTREMLY educated on the NFL. Im studying sports betting right now and reading up all i can on how to win at it. So far this year on the NFL i am 6-2 and ncaa 7-1 (all straight side bets). Today i have 2 straight side bets, and depedning on how the games go that i watch live maybe 1 or 2 2nd half bets, i feel these are most profitable for me. neither of my 2 bets include bills or saints, i just used that as an example. I appreciate the flam and have learned a lesson.

[ensign_lee]

machmood:

It's ok to ask questions like this. Don't feel bad; we've all been there at one point.

But to answer your question, this would be -EV. Why? Because huge favorites on the moneyline are in themselves uusally inflated and so are -EV.

If you combine another bet with them, then all you're doing is making that parlay more -EV.

Only when two things are correlated (i.e. one thing coming true means another will probably come true) can parlays truly be +EV.

Otherwise, all you're usually doing is combining two bets; and if they were both -EV to begin with, all you're doing is magnifying the -EV.