TPTK vs TAG deepish (with poll)

[kaz2107]

since this is a tag it sure looks to me like he knows we have Ax since there are 0 draws available on the flop and thus can beat Ax and is tryin to punish us by takin us to value town. hence why calling down is typically a bad idea

[Quester]

I think this is close because we haven't represented any hand.


Basic range analysis:
TT-KK - 24 combos (ahead)
33,66,88,99 - 12 combos (behind)
AA - 1 combo (behind)
A3,A6,A8,A9 - 20 combos (behind)
AT-AQ - 24 combos (ahead)
AK - 6 combos (tied)
Let's say he bluffs 10%, so add 8 combos (ahead)

We're ahead of 56, split with 6, lose to 33. So we're right around what our pot odds are (edit: I'm discounting much of what we beat in my mind, that isn't clear here). I say marginal call on the river. We occasionally see some weird crap doing this, and it may be useful for some future value if he has it.

[Spanky1974]

I think you played the hand so weakly that you have to call. Much more than 10% of the time villain is completely bluffing. If you play a standard TAG game, villain will never put you on TPTK. Lately I've messed around with checking TPTK OOP on dry boards, and villains keep betting 2-3 streets behind me.

[Inf1n1tY]

raise him on the turn

otherwise i much likely would fold here

[Zen_Approach]

I'm not sure what hand he shows up with here that beats AK. He can't expect to get value out of a set or A9 with a shove on this river. IMO you could make this call, but I think it is entirely read dependent, and I'd expect to see a set or a pure bluff, with a bluff being quite a bit more likely. I'd be very surprised to see AQ, AJ here.

BTW I don't like the passive line you took on this hand. I think you can justify a check/raise on the turn, or even lead the turn and get value out of a weaker ace.

[JimboNYY24]

I'm generalizing but without a really good read I just don't think a TAG is 3 barrel bluffing enough to make this call profitable. Same with him 3 towning AQ but that is much closer.