*** Official NY Mets Our OFFSEASON Has Come Thread ***

[Vyse]

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Milledge is already as good as Ryan Church. That is the problem.

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Wrong. Where are you getting this from?

edit: where i got the contract info is shady, so I'm not sure when Church is a FA. I'll check cot's. well they just have his year-to-year status. f it.

[Triumph36]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Milledge is already as good as Ryan Church. That is the problem.

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Wrong. Where are you getting this from?

edit: where i got the contract info is shady, so I'm not sure when Church is a FA. I'll check cot's. well they just have his year-to-year status. f it.

[/ QUOTE ]

nowhere - unfortunately my BP subscription lapsed, so I can't go look up both's PECOTAs.

I guess given Lastings' 704 OPS against right handed pitching (small sample), he's got some work to do.

Church should outperform him, but not by much - what's the new Nats ballpark like anyway? I know the old one was the biggest pitchers park in the league so that deflates Church's numbers.

[metsandfinsfan]

if we get a big pitcher (johan, haren, bedard) i can live with this trade. Church isnt awful. I just think milledge had more value than this ... apparantly not i guess.

im assuming they will nontender estrada now and save the cash unless he is packaged somewhere

[wh1t3bread]

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im assuming they will nontender estrada now and save the cash unless he is packaged somewhere

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Yep. Hopefully Minaya can get something serviceable for Estrada. Might be tough because everyone knows he'll probably be a FA in 2 weeks anyway.

[Vyse]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
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Milledge is already as good as Ryan Church. That is the problem.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wrong. Where are you getting this from?

edit: where i got the contract info is shady, so I'm not sure when Church is a FA. I'll check cot's. well they just have his year-to-year status. f it.

[/ QUOTE ]

nowhere - unfortunately my BP subscription lapsed, so I can't go look up both's PECOTAs.

I guess given Lastings' 704 OPS against right handed pitching (small sample), he's got some work to do.

Church should outperform him, but not by much - what's the new Nats ballpark like anyway? I know the old one was the biggest pitchers park in the league so that deflates Church's numbers.

[/ QUOTE ]

Church was worth more than 7 wins last year. He's rated highly defensive metrics so his Rate stats seem believable. An 800+ OPS in a severe pitcher's park is pretty good. And the Mets get his prime seasons without waiting on any development for Milledge. Milledge would've likely been a well below average regular this season.

[rwperu34]

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Milledge would've likely been a well below average regular this season.


[/ QUOTE ]

Milledge's luck adjusted line for for 2007;

.304/.369/.478

For his career;

.295/.359/.452

[crockpot]

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Church was worth more than 7 wins last year.

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i'm not picking on you, but i want to get this out there:

WARP3 sucks. it bites the big one. if you gave everyone credit for his full WARP3 rating, the average team would win something like 120 games.

the nats totaled 59.4 WARP3 last year. since it's established that a replacement-level team can win about 49 games, they should have gone 108-54 instead of 73-89...if you believe WARP3 is useful for this exercise.

re: milledge being as good now as church, it's true. ZIPS link

[Suigin406]

obviously gomez and milledge were not both going to be on roster next year, not with all the depth we have there already and not to mention with the lack of FAs out there that trading was the only way to improve the pitching

gomez isn't even ready to play and needs more ABs, the mets can't afford to give him the experience up here, so he was not going to be on the roster anyway imo...

regardless, milledge wasn't coming back and vyse, the mets for sure know that alou will miss a lot of games, there is a lot of depth in the OF to compensate

edit: i think what white and needle said pretty much lol

[Vyse]

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Church was worth more than 7 wins last year.

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i'm not picking on you, but i want to get this out there:

WARP3 sucks.

[/ QUOTE ]

Which is why I qualified it by noting that the defensive credit BP gives Church is considered accurate, hence it's not far off. I bet a .280 OF with very good D = 7 wins.

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re: milledge being as good now as church, it's true. ZIPS link

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That link really doesn't say much =/

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I was assuming that one of them would have been traded this offseason.

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Doubtful, but at least you should've said as much, I'm not going to assume you're assuming Alou's going to be traded, why would I?

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why the personal attack?

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Wasn't personal or an attack, I thought you were just being lazy

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Vyse,

Barring injuries to outfielders in spring trading there is no way the Mets were going to have both Milledge and Gomez on the 25 man roster for opening day. Not with Chavez, Easley and Anderson already on the bench. Right or wrong they would have sent Gomez down to New Orleans to get his at bats, which is the same thing they did with Milledge the last couple of seasons.

Think before you post.

[/ QUOTE ]

Meh, wrong player, same general point. They have no OF depth. No one who doesn't suck, anyway. If they don't like / trust Milledge -- and it's obvious they don't -- then why would they want two spots in the lineup -- OFs no less -- that they don't trust for production?

After that the question is whether or not they SHOULDN'T trust Milledge. I partially buy into that but not fully. But it's not a HORRIBLE bad, it's just not a particularly good one.

[crockpot]

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Which is why I qualified it by noting that the defensive credit BP gives Church is considered accurate, hence it's not far off. I bet a .280 OF with very good D = 7 wins.

[/ QUOTE ]

okay, now i am picking on you. that is a ridiculous valuation. church is projected to be about a league-average bat. there is no realistic level of defense that can make a league-average corner bat into a 7-win player.

furthermore, church projects at -1 runs of defense in a corner next year. he had a good year in '07, but has not established a level of good play.

as a general rule, BP's defensive numbers are not very good, and you would do well to look elsewhere. although the fielding bible does agree church had a good year.