Should I sell this position?

[Sniper]

[gull]

Sell. You are concentrating risk unnecessarily.

[Sniper]

[ QUOTE ]
Sell. You are concentrating risk unnecessarily.

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gull, can you quantify his risk?

[kimchi]

Instead of selling, why don't you just use a trailing stop as an exit. The stock is clearly in an uptrend so let your profits run.

You can insert trailing stops behind recent levels of support or a multiple of the average true range.

[Mr. Now]

jz,

There is an objective/subjective conflict here.

Objectively:
The stock is in a huge uptrend, in a a recently uptrending industry- nuclear. EXC is the nation's leading nuclear plant operator. You have huge gains. Selling now requires that you judge how high it can go. Since you cannot know, you are best served by riding the trend. That means holding until the trend changes. Price is quite aways away from ANY kind of reverse of the long-term trend in this stock.

Subjective:
You describe your situation. Looking at this in isolation, it is easy to rationalize selling for a long list of good, subjective reasons.

It's not all of nothing. It's not hold-all or sell-all.

One way to ride the trend is to simply institute a plan to sell off x% every y weeks or months. For example sell 25% of the current position every 6 weeks.

In theory you can never be totally out the the stock with this approach.This allows you to meet both of your goals-- funding current expenses and continuing to participate in the uptrend.

EXC is really trending very strong recently.

[TLC]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What will the split do for you?

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more shares = more dividend payout

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How so?

[jzpiano]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What will the split do for you?

[/ QUOTE ]

more shares = more dividend payout

[/ QUOTE ]

How so?

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmm...looks like I was wrong about this one. No worries, thanks for explaining that one Big.

[jzpiano]

[ QUOTE ]
jz,

There is an objective/subjective conflict here.

Objectively:
The stock is in a huge uptrend, in a a recently uptrending industry- nuclear. EXC is the nation's leading nuclear plant operator. You have huge gains. Selling now requires that you judge how high it can go. Since you cannot know, you are best served by riding the trend. That means holding until the trend changes. Price is quite aways away from ANY kind of reverse of the long-term trend in this stock.

Subjective:
You describe your situation. Looking at this in isolation, it is easy to rationalize selling for a long list of good, subjective reasons.

It's not all of nothing. It's not hold-all or sell-all.

One way to ride the trend is to simply institute a plan to sell off x% every y weeks or months. For example sell 25% of the current position every 6 weeks.

In theory you can never be totally out the the stock with this approach.This allows you to meet both of your goals-- funding current expenses and continuing to participate in the uptrend.

EXC is really trending very strong recently.

[/ QUOTE ]

Another great post and maybe a really good idea in there. I like the idea of selling off this stock in maybe 20-25% chunks every couple of weeks and then reinvesting it into a S&P Index Fund thus diversifying my holdings. Maybe in the end I could hold on to the last 10-25% since I don't believe that this stock is done growing.

[Mr. Now]

Yes.

You might decide to sell 20% of the current position now, subjectively, because you need the cash and EXC just hit an all-time high, etc.

....then 20% of the (new smaller) current position either periodically, or when you know you need it. Look at your calendar and check for the key expense-events over the next year.

This stock has a beautiful chart, and price/volume action !

From my point of view, EXC's price action seems to be saying (in part) that running nuclear power plants is a growing and profitable business ... and that maybe very few people recognize the huge potential for huge growth right now.

Competitors can't just show up and tout expertise in this area. EXC has a kind of leadership lock here.

And suddenly, high-profile Green people LOVE nukes. And EXC? There is also a connection with Barack Obama here...they are IL-based and back Obama for President. These nuke and political details are somewhat off-topic but might help explain the run-up in EXC in part.




See also:
http://www.ecolo.org/media/articles/...p-24-05-04.htm

Bio:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Lovelock

[nineinchal]

[ QUOTE ]
) Sorry if I ramble....I'm very confused [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

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Let me get this straight: You make 400% on your money in the stock market and you're confused? Yeeeesh.