Predict the direction of the Dollar thread

[Mook]

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EUR/USD. I think the dollar bottoms out next week after the coming rate cut, especially if we get 50 rather than 25. I'd say 1.45 might be a good spot to try and catch a major reversal in the dollar.

Thoughts?

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I think the USD is going to cause a lot of people a lot of pain in the next couple of months.

I share your opinion that after the next Fed rate cut, there's going to be a big upside surge in the dollar vs. the euro and pound - USD/GBP is hugely oversold and I could see it bouncing back to 1.85 or less. I think 1.35 to the euro is a reasonable bounceback point.

Long term I agree that there's more room to the downside on the dollar, but not before a bunch of leveraged speculators get absolutely crushed by a 10-15% reversal. Seems to me like everyone who wants to short the dollar already has.

Mook