$235 6-man [censored] me with a chainsaw

[aghasax]

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It's very profitable for SB to keep this table setup around as long as possible. Each successive hand becomes more +$EV the longer it continues. Stealing one BB from suzzer now is kind of meh, but waiting five minutes and doing it is much better. The opportunity will still be there because he still can't call with anything even when there's >2x as much in the pot preflop.

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I have problems seeing how this is a very heavy argument.
It's likely that the bubble won't last very long. If it does, often it does because button double up through us, and then the stack setup is not that good for pwning anymore. Also, why can't we, as SB, take the BB now and later?

[Slim Pickens]

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It's very profitable for SB to keep this table setup around as long as possible. Each successive hand becomes more +$EV the longer it continues. Stealing one BB from suzzer now is kind of meh, but waiting five minutes and doing it is much better. The opportunity will still be there because he still can't call with anything even when there's >2x as much in the pot preflop.

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I have problems seeing how this is a very heavy argument.
It's likely that the bubble won't last very long. If it does, often it does because button double up through us, and then the stack setup is not that good for pwning anymore. Also, why can't we, as SB, take the BB now and later?

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Sometimes you can take advantage of it both now and later, but every push SB makes is going to open BB's calling range, unless BB is some sort of robot. My point is that two levels later, it's not hard to find an extra +0.8% by making calling ranges tighter, and that's what SB needs to offset passing this opportunity with the bottom end of his range. I'm not suggesting SB should be folding a hand with, like, a face card in it.

[eurythmech]

Two levels? Wtf? We'll be HU by then, if the tournament is still running.

Just take the edge now.

[plexiq]

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Sometimes you can take advantage of it both now and later, but every push SB makes is going to open BB's calling range, unless BB is some sort of robot.

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With a good player in the BB, i dont think SB should be on anything else but ATC. There s no way a competent BB would significantly loosen his calling range in this setup, even if SB is clearly pushing ATC, right?

If SB folds anything here, he gives up solid value this hand, for a very questionable reward. I'd be very surprised if this setup frequently lasts 2 more lvl's...but then, i'm not playing anywhere near this buy-in [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Btw, ICM overestimates BBs current equity. It does not take into account the future -EV spots that we will face as midstack on the bubble. Doubling up here does have more value than ICM suggests.

[wiggs73]

i'd fold while cursing a lot, etc.

edit - After skimming the thread, seems like if SB is on any 2, its a call. While that might be true, idk if he actually IS on any 2, so I think it's pretty close and I'd still lean towards folding.

"Villian has been pretty active since he had a stack." - not 100% sure what this means, I guess if you think he's pushing any 2 then call. Maybe if he's shoved every SB vs. BB for the last 7 orbits or whatever... But even though he should be pushing any 2, keep in mind he might not be. People playing the opposite of how they should is how we all make money.

Anyway, close but I probably fold, fwiw.

[Slim Pickens]

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Two levels? Wtf? We'll be HU by then, if the tournament is still running.

Just take the edge now.

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If it's on FT and the next level is 120/240, then yeah, folding if you put him on ATC is dumb. On Stars, the next level could be 100/200/25 next hand. There's a pretty big difference between those two scenarios.

From my experience with the 236 6-max SNGs on FT, unless I have a decent sample of hands to decide my opponent knows the first thing about bubble strategy, I fold because I don't think he's pushing near any two. An unknown at this level probably thinks he's getting clever by bluffing with K8s and QTo. His donkey-logic brain will still tell him that going all-in with just T5o is bad. If Stars is significantly different, you should probably just ignore me.

[kleath]

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It's very profitable for SB to keep this table setup around as long as possible. Each successive hand becomes more +$EV the longer it continues. Stealing one BB from suzzer now is kind of meh, but waiting five minutes and doing it is much better. The opportunity will still be there because he still can't call with anything even when there's >2x as much in the pot preflop.

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I have problems seeing how this is a very heavy argument.
It's likely that the bubble won't last very long. If it does, often it does because button double up through us, and then the stack setup is not that good for pwning anymore. Also, why can't we, as SB, take the BB now and later?

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Sometimes you can take advantage of it both now and later, but every push SB makes is going to open BB's calling range, unless BB is some sort of robot. My point is that two levels later, it's not hard to find an extra +0.8% by making calling ranges tighter, and that's what SB needs to offset passing this opportunity with the bottom end of his range. I'm not suggesting SB should be folding a hand with, like, a face card in it.

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I disagree heavily, at the very least in this specific situation since even if the shorty is there for a bunch of hands suzzer is not going to start calling A3 or something just because big stack has been pushing every hand, good players ranges wont fluctuate here THAT much so SB needs to take every advantage he can take, giving suzzer chips doesnt give him equity.

[curtains]

Offhand it's probably a call but I dunno payout structure and crap. JJ performs extremely well against any 2.

[curtains]

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Reads? Do you think he's pushing NE2? He has to be pushing more than 73% for a call to be good. Obviously he should be on any 2.

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If he's got any clue, he's not on any two. He can fold all day and continue to pwn with the short stack around. The more the blinds go up, the more prize pool he can take from suzzer each orbit.

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You on the pipe? Of course he should be on any 2.

[curtains]

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SNG Wiz says what now?

I get we need to win 75.12% or something like that, JJ is 77.47% vs a random hand.

What pushing range did you assign?

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I'm sure we're looking at the same plot. I've just noticed how wide the axis auto-scaled. Sure, it's a +$EV call if you're sure he's pushing any two but...

a) if he's smart enough to know he is +$EV to be pushing any two, he's usually also smart enough to see an obvious bubble-crushing situation and thus fold the bottom end of his range to preserve the massively +$EV opportunities in later hands and

b) if you're wrong about him pushing very wide, the call gets really bad really fast.

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wtf??? This makes no sense, pushing any 2 is completely 100% automatic. I know I just said it in the previous post, but your logic is way way way off.