simple question w/ OESFD

[pickless]

no reads
raise or call and why

Full Tilt Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (6 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

<font color="#C00000">BB ($250.80)</font>
UTG ($36.75)
MP ($198.20)
<font color="#C00000">Hero ($197)</font>
Button ($200)
SB ($205.60)

Preflop: Hero is CO with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $8</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls $6.

Flop: ($17) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $14</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $28</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero

[punter11235]

!!! DISCLAIMER !!!

Something which is totally against 2p2 wisdom and is generally considered donkish

!!! / end of DISCLAIMER !!!

I usually check the flop and try to catch some cards.
Betting is not bad though because the satcks are still deep (relatively to the pot). Now I still call and still draw.

[MasterLJ]

1. Call IP
2. Turn str flush
3. ????
4. Profit

[hemstock]

No wai man. Either raise fo like $100 or call.

[$upermad4it]

why not just push instead of raising?

[MasterLJ]

call &gt; push &gt;&gt; raise w/o push &gt; fold

[Pokey]

Push.

Think about what villain's min-checkraise says: it says "I love my hand, and I've tricked you into putting money in the pot." Now, this implies one of two situations:

1. Villain is bluffing. If villain is bluffing, a push will win you a pot where you are STILL likely to be behind. Let's face it -- you've got KJ high, and both of your high cards on on the board. If villain has ANY broadway card, he's got you beaten, and you're on the draw. However, a push wins you a now-tasty pot with almost 30 BBs in it, and that's not a bad coup with nothing but potential. It also prevents you from missing on the turn and folding the potentially best hand to a followup bet.

2. Villain is not bluffing. Obviously, this is the most likely scenario with no reads. If villain is not bluffing, he probably has a hand that is reasonably strong: sets are not unlikely, and TPTK is the barest minimum hand for him. Now, if you push good things happen: first, you get to see TWO more cards instead of one, giving you a much better chance of improving to a winner. Second, you have a chance of folding out villain, particularly if his hand can't actually stand up to the heat.

If you look at your hot-and-cold odds, you're a bit behind against a set and against any other hand you're break-even. Considering the dead money, you're probably about neutral EV if you push, villain always has TPTK or better, and villain always calls. Given that, and given that there's a bunch of dead money in the pot, go for maximizing your folding equity to try and boost your EV as much as possible. That happens when you push.

A non-push three-bet won't leave enough money behind for a scary turn bet; your folding equity will be brutalized.

A smooth-call looks too much like a draw, and villain will likely freeze up on a scare card on the turn, crippling your implied odds. Worse yet, a smooth-call will likely be met with a turn bet you can't call if the turn card is a blank.

Pushing turns your cards face-up (literally), but with all the money in the middle there's very little your opponent can do to profit from the extra information. As long as your hand is going to be relatively straightforward, you might as well make it for a stack.

Incidentally, pushing works best here if you would ALSO push with a flopped set: it increases your payoff on your flopped monsters while increasing your folding equity on your pushed draws.

[FishSticks]

Pokey - Are you back posting again now? Where have you been?

Good post btw.

[Jesse Kidd]

Note: I almost always just blindly push these sort of hands on the flop, which can never be a poor decision, I don't think.

But if I think about it..

If villain is on a bluff, he may give up by river, or be willing to bluff into our made hand, hoping our draw card is a scare card.

If villain is not on a bluff (which I think has to be given more weight in a vaccuum), I think calling down may work out really well. We obviously have great odds to hit on the turn, even with no implied odds, and I think we definitely have some.

If we blank on the turn and the board doesn't pair, no matter what he has, we almost never will have worse than 30-35% equity (there are a couple of nightmare hands with Kdxd that have us hurting) in the hand, so calling a pot-sized turn bet would be neutral EV....and this assumes no implied odds. If he'll call a 1/2 pot bet on the river with his top 2/set/whatever when we hit, this is hugely profitable.

I think calling down may actually be better here, and lower variance, especially if you have any sort of read that a check min-raise is significant strength

Jesse

[sh0wtime]

Thanks for the detailed analysis Pokey. However, I think a set is an unlikely holding for villain. KK and JJ would most likely reraise us preflop and 99 could go either way. I would also argue that a smooth call does not neccessarily give away that we are drawing- I think it's feasible for villain to assume we could play KQ, QJ or even AK this way. Having said that I generally 3 bet this flop against fairly aggressive opponents and just call most of the time against passive ones.

EDIT: Against an unknown, I probably just call.