Two Plus Two Newer Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Newer Archives > Other Topics > Sporting Events
FAQ Community Calendar Today's Posts Search

 
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Prev Previous Post   Next Post Next
  #1  
Old 09-01-2007, 01:36 AM
ArcticKnight ArcticKnight is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Running between Sports and OOT
Posts: 353
Default Ichiro and a hypothetical question for stats/Sabermetrics folks

Hello

It has been said by a few people who have watched Ichro in batting practice (and it has been said by Ichiro himself) that he could increase his HR and other power numbers at the expense of his BA if he wanted to. Whether this is a true assumption or not is not the focus of this post, but let's play along as if it was true.

Currently his careers numbers are

.333BA
.379OBP
.437SLG
.816OPS
average of about 10HR and 60 RBI per year.

Suppose you were a mananger and could move him to the 4th spot in the line-up, where it was a certainty his average would be .285 over 5 years.

What kind of numbers would Ichiro need to put up in the key power areas to make this a +EV move for the team. We can assume his defence would remain unchanged, but his stolen bases and runs scored would decline from moving out of the lead off position.

I am asking this question not to promote the idea of moving Ichiro, but to try and gain a genuine understanding of what kind of power numbers are required to offet a consistently high BA and speed (but low production). I assume there must be a point where it would be plus EV, but I'm just not sure where that is.

For example, would it be worth moving Ichiro for these numbers?
.285BA (the given)
.340OBP
.485SLG
.880OPS
ave 20Hrs and 95RBI

If not, what numbers then?
Reply With Quote
 


Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 02:22 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.