NL$100 Floated Flop, Turned Set

[BigPoppa]

Villain is pretty aggro, but not a retard.

Call, Raise or Push?

A pot-sized raise only leaves me $30 behind and I think looks even scarier than a shove (so is more likely to fold out the overpairs I want to call). So I'm leaning towards either pushing or calling.

If he's 2-barreling with air or a weakish made hand (QJ/KJ/TT, etc), I should call and get more value out on the River.

If he's got a draw, I should raise enough to make a call incorrect. If he's got QQ+, I should get it in now before a scare card kills my action.


Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $90.50
BB: $128.40
UTG: $143.10
MP: $147.55
CO: $111.85
Hero (BTN): $125.25

Preflop: Hero is dealt 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 Players)
UTG folds, <font color="red">MP raises to $4.00</font>, CO folds, Hero calls $4.00, 2 folds

Flop: ($9.50) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">MP bets $7.00</font>, Hero calls $7.00

Turn: ($23.50) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">MP bets $20.00</font>

Pot Size: $43.50

[Sciolist]

A lot of his range is made up of good jacks, J8, 22 and overpairs. There's only one drawing hand (9T, 9h Th being the worst case scenario obviously). There're also the two hands that are already ahead of you.

A raise pushes out a lot of the hands you beat, a fold is obviously dumb, so a call is right. You'd have $94 left on the river, pot at $63.50, if he bets I would push. If he checks, I would bet $45 and call a push.

[longlags]

I think you are about to see him on QJ, TT, 99.
Flop bet was "I got something, but I don't want to see K or A next turn"
Turn bet is a classic relief bet "yey, no over card, this hand is mine".
I think you should raise 2x the turn, make him doubt himself for a little and call if shove.

if you decided to cold call, 9 or T are the scary cards on the river, and heart will slow you down.
set of 8/J is quite unlikely by the way he plays, and you probably way ahead.

[drewvy]

i like a smallish raise here like to 50 or so..with qq/kk/aa he's calling and/or pushing...if he's got aj he may fold but you would have a tough time getting more out anyway.

[reef2287]

hes out of position, which makes me think hes stronger more times than weaker, i'm raising this turn to 45ish or so and pushing the river

[BigPoppa]

I really think a smallish raise is the worst of both worlds. It lets weak hands get away while giving draws the odds to call.

Say I raise to $50. Villain only has to call $30 more with a draw getting 3:1 from the pot + the implied odds from the other $60 in my stack (since I'm not folding to a River push). This actually makes a call ok for the Villain.

Meanwhile, the little raise lets the Villain fold 2nd best hands that would've either bet the River or called a modest value bet after checking.

For those who say call, what are our River plans if a bad card comes and the Villain bets pot on the River? What if he bets pot when a blank hits?

[Sciolist]

[ QUOTE ]
I really think a smallish raise is the worst of both worlds. It lets weak hands get away while giving draws the odds to call.

Say I raise to $50. Villain only has to call $30 more with a draw getting 3:1 from the pot + the implied odds from the other $60 in my stack (since I'm not folding to a River push). This actually makes a call ok for the Villain.

Meanwhile, the little raise lets the Villain fold 2nd best hands that would've either bet the River or called a modest value bet after checking.

For those who say call, what are our River plans if a bad card comes and the Villain bets pot on the River? What if he bets pot when a blank hits?

[/ QUOTE ]
Thank you, a sensible post. I was a bit too exasperated to post the same thing. I think it's pretty hard to put him on a draw here, he has a pretty wide range including lots of hands we beat still, no matter what the river. Whether he'd call a reraise is another matter, but as it'd be so small he would probably have to.

I think I'd aim to get it all-in no matter what the river...

[tomek322]

[ QUOTE ]
i like a smallish raise here like to 50 or so..with qq/kk/aa he's calling and/or pushing...if he's got aj he may fold but you would have a tough time getting more out anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

+1

[TheChad]

YEah, I don't dig the small raise. I don't like calling either. I make a big raise or push. A big raise being to around $60. If he's as aggro as you say, he might stack off thin. He drove this pot up to this point and the 3h could not have helped either of you (LOL). I like the big raise over the shove, but once in a while...

[tubasteve]

$66