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#1
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Interesting Super Bowl bet?
So, I saw the following two lines today:
AFC -15.5 NFC Super Bowl Patriots -200 win Super Bowl. Any reason not to lay the -200 and take the 15.5? |
#2
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Re: Interesting Super Bowl bet?
Yes
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#3
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Re: Interesting Super Bowl bet?
[ QUOTE ]
So, I saw the following two lines today: AFC -15.5 NFC Super Bowl Patriots -200 win Super Bowl. Any reason not to lay the -200 and take the 15.5? [/ QUOTE ] If Brady and Moss get hurt, how you like this bet now? |
#4
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Re: Interesting Super Bowl bet?
Then you've got a huge overlay on the NFC side?
I'm not suggesting this is risk free. But assuming that one bought both of those bets at the best available price right now, it seems to me that it might be +EV. |
#5
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Re: Interesting Super Bowl bet?
If you feel they are errant you can do a bastard arbitrage.
Future is -184 at Pinny for those who want a better price. |
#6
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Re: Interesting Super Bowl bet?
-165 if you want a better price
LOL at Pats 67% to win SB is +EV. |
#7
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Re: Interesting Super Bowl bet?
[ QUOTE ]
LOL at Pats 67% to win SB is +EV. [/ QUOTE ] |
#8
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Re: Interesting Super Bowl bet?
[ QUOTE ]
Then you've got a huge overlay on the NFC side? I'm not suggesting this is risk free. But assuming that one bought both of those bets at the best available price right now, it seems to me that it might be +EV. [/ QUOTE ] Uh, no, you'd have the exact opposite. |
#9
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Re: Interesting Super Bowl bet?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Then you've got a huge overlay on the NFC side? I'm not suggesting this is risk free. But assuming that one bought both of those bets at the best available price right now, it seems to me that it might be +EV. [/ QUOTE ] Uh, no, you'd have the exact opposite. [/ QUOTE ] How would it be the opposite. If the Pats lose in the AFC playoffs, then the NFC +15.5 will be, what, at least a touchdown higher than the actual line? FWIW, the total is 55. Also, there's a "no" on win the superbowl at +160 for those who think it's good value. |
#10
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Re: Interesting Super Bowl bet?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Then you've got a huge overlay on the NFC side? I'm not suggesting this is risk free. But assuming that one bought both of those bets at the best available price right now, it seems to me that it might be +EV. [/ QUOTE ] Uh, no, you'd have the exact opposite. [/ QUOTE ] How would it be the opposite. If the Pats lose in the AFC playoffs, then the NFC +15.5 will be, what, at least a touchdown higher than the actual line? FWIW, the total is 55. Also, there's a "no" on win the superbowl at +160 for those who think it's good value. [/ QUOTE ] Man, you just don't get it... |
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