value of pocket pair with flopped overpair

[mwette]

If I play a pocket pair and the flop does not make me a set, but comes with overcards I figure I'm not in good shape and will fold to a bet. [Occasionally I will stay in w/ 4-6 layers in the pot and a single bet comes from late position.]

However, consider if the flop comes paired. Does that give me better odds to call? I figure I then have 4 outs to a full house and I'm in better shape, 11:1 versus 22:1. Is this correct thinking?

[Example: I have 44 and flop comes 99X.]

[KitCloudkicker]

[ QUOTE ]
I figure I then have 4 outs to a full house and I'm in better shape

[/ QUOTE ]

4 outs against a person holding what?

[gobbledygeek]

I dunno, aren't you still down to 2 outs most of the time? Another 9 gives any Xx (where X > 4) and YY (where Y > 4) a better hand than you (as well as 9x, however unlikely). I'm done with this hand on the flop unless (a) getting close to my 22:1 or (b) only 1 or 2 opponents and action indicates I might actually have the best hand.

[DeuceKicker]

I'd rather bet than check/call. If the bet is from late position I'd rather check-raise if you think they're trying to steal. When the board is paired, I either play my small-medium pocket pairs like they're good, or just fold. A lot depends on what the x in 99x is.

Also, you only count outs that will improve your hand. If you think your opponent already has a higher pair, then making 9s full doesn't help you.

[cgrohman]

It depends on a) how many opponents and which one of them bets, b) what position you have, and c) what "x" is- i.e. is it above a 4.

If the flop comes 995 and the SB bets into 4 players, I fold really quickly. If the flop comes 992 and the BB bets into 2 players, i probably raise.

[wizard]

The size of the board cards is a very important consideration. If you hold 66 and the flop is KKQ you might want to muck to a check but you should raise if the flop is 884. If the blinds are the ones that come out betting you may be a little more careful but most people check a flopped set. When a blind check calls 2 bets cold though, you are done with it even when the flop is 775 and you hold 66.
The short answer to your basic question is YES.

[RossSi]

Something that I don't think has been mentioned is that when the board pairs on the flop the chance that it has connected with an opponent is much reduced. When the flop is not paired, nine cards connect. When the flop pairs, there are only five cards in the deck that make you opponents a pair or trips.
Thus your medium or small pocket pair is more likely than usual to be the best hand.

When the board come paired, i agree that texture is very important. With a preflop raiser when the board comes KKQ as above this is ugly/dangerous for my 66. However if it comes 884 as above I'm in a much better spot.

I tend to play overcards a little more aggressively on the flop with paired boards and I think that in the 2nd situation, especially in late positon, you can raise a bet to see how much the bettor really likes his hand. It's tough, it's very situation dependent and requires feel.

[jesse8888]

This is a situation where having specific reads on specific opponents is very, very important. In general if someone bets into the world on the flop, I find it's a pretty safe bet that they don't have trips. However, there are some opponents (myself included) who will often just fire into 3 to 5 callers with trips and hope to get raised. If you have a read on your opponent in this case, it tends to help quite a bit.

Also, it's important to note what rank the pair is. Even the worst players are less likely play 2s or 3s than Js or Ts.