wii selling for $400+ again on ebay

[Nicholasp27]

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most of u guys + devs + analysts woulda never dreamed wii would sell 18-20mil in it's first 13.5 months...


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where is this number coming from? by my count wii will sell roughly 17 mil after the holiday season (current + 1.8 mil)

my numbers from vgchartz.com

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it all depends on the supply; obv every one shipped will sell

they are making 1.8mil/month since about august 1st, but they haven't been shipping 1.8mil/month since august...so there will likely be much more than 1.8mil available before xmas

[Nicholasp27]

what we know:

they made 7 million by 3/31/07 (sold 5.84 million of those; rest were in pipeline)
they were producing just over 1mil/month at that time
they were up to 1.5mil/month by june
they are currently at 1.8mil/month

let's assume:

they will sell out of 99% of what hits stores by 12/31/07
wiis made after 12/16 likely won't hit stores before 12/31/07


7 mil (06-03/07) + 2 mil (april/may) + 7.5 mil (june-oct) + 1.8 mil (november) + 1 mil (december) = 19.3 mil

that's right in the middle of the 18-20 mil range

they may have ramped up to 1.8 before november, as it was supposed to happen starting in august...but the only confirmation i can find is that they definitely are at 1.8mil in november


the fact that they may have been slightly ahead of the schedule above + the fact that they may be able to get some of the 12/16-12/23 wiis into the stores in asia before 12/31 + the fact that it'd be really good for them to be able to say they hit 20 mil by the end of the year (great for publicity, developer support, etc AND helps silence the critics saying they are purposefully undermanufacturing) = decent shot at them making 20mil, the top end of my range

market demand won't determine the final number, like it will with 360/ps3...supply will, so it's up to nintendo