live £50 MTT made a move, flopepd a monster but ugly turn?

[auc hincloss]

45 person MTT, 27 remaining. Blinds t200- t400

6 players at the table, its just about to fill up.

~stacks
Hero (BTN) 19.7k
SB 12k
BB 9k
UTG 16k
MP 7.5k
CO 12k

utg limps t400,2 folds to Hero on BTN with T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and raises to t1500, sb and bb fold, UTG calls.

flop 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

UTG checks, Hero bets t2200, UTG raises to t4400, Hero Calls.

Turn 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

UTG checks, Hero?????????

UTG is relative unknown, we have played some games together but in this tourney have not been involved. no proper reads although he called my raise preflop rather quick as if he was expecting it...

[crankalicious]

There's a lot I could say, but I think you play this hand trying to take all his chips and if he turns over a full house, so be it. He could just as easily have A9, which seems the more likely of the two.

[ssnyc]

aside from those annoying imaginary monsters under my bed (and a bad outcome i'm sure) why is this turn card in any way, shape or form ugly????

[Wish]

So, what are you behind that he could reasonably limp/call with preflop? Only 76, 99, 77, and 66. That's a small part of his range. You're crushing every other pocket pair from 22 to AA, ahead of suited/unsuited connectors and two gappers, except for 76 as noted (can you really put him on 96 here). Most Ax, Kx hands are drawing dead, the remainder to only a few outs. Pot is over around 12k, and you've got 10k effective stacks. But, there's one thing, ssnyc that makes those monsters under the bed maybe a little more realisic. He check-minraised the flop. That just screams of strength, and if he's not holding T8, that strength is either a set or overpair. Can hero read the minraise to narrow villains range to 66+, elminating all Ax hands? (Every pair 66+ is either a set, overpair, or second pair with straight draw.) Even if you can narrow the range that much, I think you're ahead of the range. You're drawing dead against 66, 77, 99, but you've got 88 and TT drawing to 4 outs to win + 3 to tie. You've got JJ+ drawing to 4 outs with one to come (9%). So, if you weight all of those hands as equally likely, I think you're in good shape.

In the end, I don't think the probability that villain has turned a boat is high enough to do avoid getting all the chips in the middle during this hand.