UFC 75

[freck]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm making small plays on Davis and Drwal. More details to follow maybe.

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I'm on both of those as well. I'm big on Terry Etim as well, although the number has fallen today. Still can't make up my mind about the main event - that'll be the last bet I place tomorrow I guess!

[Performify]

My writeup is up on Junkie, cross-posted picks per request, click through if you want the full discussion:

http://mmajunkie.com/2007/09/07/perf...ks-for-ufc-75/

Predictions and units against WA lines:

Marcus Davis (-200) : no action
Gleison Tibau (-180) : .9u to win .5u
Thiago Silva (-330) : 3.3u to win 1u
Kotani (-200) : 2u to win 1u
Jess Liaudin (-115) : 2.3u to win 2u
Dan Henderson (+105) : small play for action junkies if you can find above even odds.*
Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic (-450) : no action
Michael Bisping (-260) : 2.6u to win 1u
Houston Alexander : 3.4u to win 2u

*= Henderson +105 is no longer widely available so I’m not going to track against it unfairly since its taken me this long to get the picks up. Not fair taking a 20c shift in my favor for my public picks, no matter how much I might need the help lately [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

-P

[Performify]

Also cross-posting my disclaimer from Junkie:

Before anyone beats me to the punch, let me be the first to flagellate myself in public.

I have gotten absolutely murdered a couple times in the past nine months or so with my predictions since joining the team here at MMAjunkie.com. I’ve had some events which have gone exactly as typical, winning a few units here and there as expected (ex: +3.33 units at UFC 67, +3.67 units at UFC 72). But I’ve also dropped some absolute bombs, including very recently at UFC 73 (-4.25 units) and 74 (-8.2 units).

I have been a winning MMA handicapper for several years now. But in the last months I’ve been posting some tremendous losses. Is it a market correction? Has the landscape of betting on MMA changed and I’ve failed to adjust? Have I sucked all along and just gotten lucky for the first few years?

Ultimately its hard to say.

I hope people enjoy my picks and predictions, but I definitely feel the need to disclaim them based on my recent results especially doing so very poorly on UFC 74.

I bet on every fight I predict, and I enjoy it tremendously. I think you will enjoy betting on fights as well if you’re an MMA fan if you try it, even if you have only a few dollars at risk. But as always, the best thing to do is use my picks and predictions and writeups as a starting point, and make your own decisions. Own your own consequences.

I have faith that I’m a winning handicapper despite my very significant downswings recently. But I definitely warn anyone following — I’m getting killed lately, so you might very well be better off “fading” all my picks [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

-P

[igetbadbeat]

[ QUOTE ]
My writeup is up on Junkie, cross-posted picks per request, click through if you want the full discussion:

http://mmajunkie.com/2007/09/07/perf...ks-for-ufc-75/

Predictions and units against WA lines:

Marcus Davis (-200) : no action
Gleison Tibau (-180) : .9u to win .5u
Thiago Silva (-330) : 3.3u to win 1u
Kotani (-200) : 2u to win 1u
Jess Liaudin (-115) : 2.3u to win 2u
Dan Henderson (+105) : small play for action junkies if you can find above even odds.*
Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic (-450) : no action
Michael Bisping (-260) : 2.6u to win 1u
Houston Alexander : 3.4u to win 2u

*= Henderson +105 is no longer widely available so I’m not going to track against it unfairly since its taken me this long to get the picks up. Not fair taking a 20c shift in my favor for my public picks, no matter how much I might need the help lately [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

-P

[/ QUOTE ]

Gleison Tibau (-180) : .9u to win .5u
Thiago Silva (-330) : 3.3u to win 1u
Kotani (-200) : 2u to win 1u
Michael Bisping (-260) : 2.6u to win 1u

These are all winners and value lines IMO

[Performify]

beat,

What makes you think Torres is a good bet? Care to elaborate?

He got tooled by Luke Cummo in stand up and is coming in to the fight on a month's notice...

-P

[Trencherman]

[ QUOTE ]
*= Henderson +105 is no longer widely available so I’m not going to track against it unfairly since its taken me this long to get the picks up. Not fair taking a 20c shift in my favor for my public picks, no matter how much I might need the help lately [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
-P

[/ QUOTE ]
Henderson +110 at WSEX.

[Pokerlogist]

I love to watch the MMA fights but betting is really difficult. It seems a lot of high skill fighters are wanting to cash a paycheck even when they are still beat up from the last fight or when they are not really motivated to prepare for it. If they've recently won a big fight , they seem less willing to prepare for the next one (Q. Jackson for UFC75?). Or may be they are ready to retire and don't care so much anymore (Crocop for UFC75? Henderson?). Then as a bettor, maybe you've got that part figured out. Now you have to hop for no lucky punches, unluck slips, or accidental headbutts. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] Just a brief rant, I guess. No betting on this one for me. Good luck to all. At least UFC75 TV isn't pay per view [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] .

[Joe Tall]

My wife works for Quinton Jackson, here in Irvine, CA. She is with the Jacksons now; he as four young children. I'll try to call her and see if there is anything interesting to know.

[Joe Tall]

[ QUOTE ]
My wife works for Quinton Jackson, here in Irvine, CA. She is with the Jacksons now; he as four young children. I'll try to call her and see if there is anything interesting to know.

[/ QUOTE ]

Rampage was concerned about Henderson being fired up with the kid's due date being today. Rampage also got v pissed off at his wife for calling him on the day of a fight as he likes to focus.

[Murphinator]

Congrats to whoever bet Kongo

Also, Dan's wife already had the kid so that won't matter. I have 2 units on Hendo.