One of the toughest hands I've played - 200NL

[Noam Chomsky]

meh, I'm sure you're right. Just kind of odd that everyone wants to dump this hand so fast on the flop but AA is a quick shove for all of them.

[bilbo-san]

[ QUOTE ]
meh, I'm sure you're right. Just kind of odd that everyone wants to dump this hand so fast on the flop but AA is a quick shove for all of them.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your statement about equity vs. hands that beat you is misleading. With AA, there are more hands that you beat, specifically KQ and AQ.

These are only "the hands that beat you (KQ)" (or tie), and excluding Q9 because it's unlikely:


Board: Js 9s Qd
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 57.213% 56.69% 00.52% 124602 1140.00 { JJ, 99, AQs, KQs, KTs, QJs, J9s, T8s, AQo, KQo }
Hand 1: 42.787% 42.27% 00.52% 92898 1140.00 { AA }


---

31,680 games 0.079 secs 401,012 games/sec

Board: Js 9s Qd
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 70.551% 60.62% 09.93% 19206 3144.50 { JJ, 99, AQs, KQs, KTs, QJs, J9s, T8s, AQo, KQo }
Hand 1: 29.449% 19.52% 09.93% 6185 3144.50 { KcQs }

Clearly, your equity vs. these hands is way higher with AA.

Yes, your equity vs the hands that beat AA is higher when you have KQ, but who cares? Your equity is bad either way vs. those hands and I don't think that should be the deciding factor. Rather, total equity is.

[Noam Chomsky]

no, it's not really misleading at all put in the context of the entire discussion.

[keikiwai]

[ QUOTE ]
no, it's not really misleading at all put in the context of the entire discussion.

[/ QUOTE ]

WHAT?

[Noam Chomsky]

I stand corrected

[Trikkur]

Don't forget we are 160BBs deep. And yes obviously folding would of made my life easier, but I felt like I was ahead and was going to c/r all in on a lot of turns. The ace hit and im not sure if its a good card or a bad card.

I think there's merit in a combo bet on the river as well. There aren't too many worse hands that call, so if we do bet the river, I think it needs to be a blocking bet mixed with a bluff, but im not sure if he'll fold QJ or the likes so it's hard to say.

[bilbo-san]

[ QUOTE ]
no, it's not really misleading at all put in the context of the entire discussion.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wait, wait. You supplied some context that AA had less equity than KQ here. Or you made it sound like that. I refuted this.

What context are you referring to?

[Noam Chomsky]

you're really adding a lot of value to this discussion by focusing on the irrelevant.

The only thing that mattered in my statement as it pertained to the context in which it was made is that when KQ is behind it has more equity than AA does when it's behind.

I was specifically questioning why KQ is an auto-muck and AA is an auto-shove on this flop. I thought that was clear.

[yad]

I think your play is fine. You could fold flop, but I don't hate the call.

I was originally going to say c/c river to snap off his missed spades. But now that I think about it, he probably has a hand like JT or KsQs or something (Asxs also possible). So I like a bet/fold. c/f is also worth considering.

[bilbo-san]

[ QUOTE ]
you're really adding a lot of value to this discussion by focusing on the irrelevant.

The only thing that mattered in my statement as it pertained to the context in which it was made is that when KQ is behind it has more equity than AA does when it's behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, when I said that you're statement was misleading, what I really meant is that this cute little factoid is, in fact, the irrelevant part.

You're basically saying that villain's range would be different (and worse for you) if you had AA than if you had KQ (i.e. that what YOU hold influences HIS actions). This might be true if you had some reason to believe your opponent puts you squarely on AA. It isn't true of any normal poker hand.

Your equity is higher vs. his range for raising this flop with AA than if you had KQ. That's what matters.