100NL JhJs on 2cTh3h board (playing an overpair)

Decerto · #1 10-23-2007, 04:57 PM

Villian is 21/15/4 over 2K+ hands. He has check raised 6 times out of 106 times checking the flop.
I tend to have trouble in spots like this...how does your line change with different stats on the player? Does it make a difference if you are holding AA-JJ or should all over pairs be played the same way on this board? Are you more or less likely to go bust if the flop has a lot of draws? Any discussion on this situation would be greatly appreciated. Thanks.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (6 handed) Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($202.90)
Hero ($144.60)
CO ($100)
Button ($127.25)
SB ($75)
BB ($107.75)

Preflop: Hero is MP with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero raises to $4, 3 folds, BB calls $3.

Flop: ($8.50) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $6, BB raises to $26.5

Montezuma21 · #2 10-23-2007, 05:06 PM

Tough spot but i will say this:

All overpairs should NOT be played the same way on this board for two reasons:

1. If you decide to get it in, you have much greater equity versus his range of draws with AA/KK than with QQ/JJ because against the latter he'll usually have overcard outs.

2. It's rare against someone with these stats, but it does happen that they play AA-JJ the same way. obv your equity against this range is higher with AA/KK.

I don't understand what you mean by : "Are you more likely to go bust if the flop has a lot of draws"

Decerto · #3 10-23-2007, 05:14 PM

"Are you more likely to go bust if the flop has a lot of draws"...

When yo have an overpair on a board that is really dry like Tc5h2s and you get check raised are you more likely to come over the top in this situation or when you have the overpair on a board like 7s8sQc?

It seems more likely that your opponent would have hit the second flop but on the first flop there isn't the posibility that he is semi-bluffing the draw so it seems like you would have to give him more credit. The second flop is a lot more draw heavy so it is possible he has something like Axs or or 9T and is semibluffing but it is also a flop that more likely hit him. Which of the two flops are you more likely to come over the top and why?

Sean Fraley · #4 10-23-2007, 05:48 PM

I think that this is either a set, slowplayed AA or KK, or flush draw+overcards since I don't see a TAG villain flat-calling OOP with anything that makes two pair or a straight+flush draw and he is aggressive enough to check-raise a flush draw. Against a range of TT+, 33, 22, any T with a kicker J or higher, and any combination of A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] we're about 53% to win. I'd make call here and if the turn doesn't have a heart or an overcard either bet 2/3 to full pot, or raise all-in if villain bets the turn.

cs3 · #5 10-23-2007, 05:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]

All overpairs should NOT be played the same way on this board for two reasons:

1. If you decide to get it in, you have much greater equity versus his range of draws with AA/KK than with QQ/JJ because against the latter he'll usually have overcard outs.

2. It's rare against someone with these stats, but it does happen that they play AA-JJ the same way. obv your equity against this range is higher with AA/KK.

[/ QUOTE ]

agreed.
with AA i either shove flop, or call and shove non-flush turns.
with JJ i fold and dont think too much about it

Montezuma21 · #6 10-24-2007, 11:55 AM

[ QUOTE ]
"Are you more likely to go bust if the flop has a lot of draws"...

When yo have an overpair on a board that is really dry like Tc5h2s and you get check raised are you more likely to come over the top in this situation or when you have the overpair on a board like 7s8sQc?

It seems more likely that your opponent would have hit the second flop but on the first flop there isn't the posibility that he is semi-bluffing the draw so it seems like you would have to give him more credit. The second flop is a lot more draw heavy so it is possible he has something like Axs or or 9T and is semibluffing but it is also a flop that more likely hit him.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is absolutely correct. you've summed it up pretty well.