A discussion with Corsakh - 3betting pairs from the blinds

[Gelford]

[quote
Read the post man, ffs

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FFS [censored] diagf [censored] .. yo! just sneak peaking quickly at work

[fees]

a lot of thinking went into this, more than need be.

Theres alot of math analysis here but I assume most of you guys play so many tables and your player pools are so big that you wont have built history where you can figure out what the hell do to in marginal type situations. Basically if you are far enough ahead of his range and its hard to play if you do anything but b/f, just 3b and b/f this flop all day. Also if he calls give up no matter what (cept a 9ball)

[vieira10]

I tend to just call with midpairs in the blinds. The fact that I'm out of position is my main reason. Your more likely to make mistakes OOP, especially against a competent villain. Obviously, the bigger the pot the bigger your mistakes become. Also, against a good villain (who floats a decent %age), you cant narrow down his range until you get to the turn.

The factors that would tilt into 3betting out of the blinds are:

I've seen villain fold to 3bets a good %age of the time, even in position.

If he doesnt float a lot.

And if i really think he is super weak-tight and I can run him over on later streets.

[kroeliewoelie]

My analysis:

MP opens
22+,A8s+,KTs+,QJs,T9s,98s, AJo+,KJo+ = 181 combinations

If we 3bet:
4bets: QQ+,AKs = 22 combinations. We fold.
calls: 77-JJ,AQ+,98s,T9s = 61 combinations
folds: everything else = 98 combinations
EV(MP folds/4bets)= 22/181*(-6)+ 98/181*2 = -0.72+1.08=0.36

On the flop:
We cbet, he
calls: JJ,TT(will raise turn),T9 = 16 (our equity 9%, assume 0%)
raises: AKo = 12
folds: AQ,98s,77-99 = 33
EV(calls preflop; call+raise+fold)=(16+12)/181*(-12) + 33/181*6 = -1.81+1.09 = -0.79

Total EV=-0.43

So 3betting against this range doesn't seem to be profitable. But if we were up against a loose button raiser who also raises 56s-78s, A2s-A7s, A8o-ATo+,98o and other stuff we can add at least 100 handcombinations to his range that he will have to fold preflop.

In that case the total EV is
22/281*(-2)+28/281*(-12)+33/281*(6)+198/281*2=
-0.15-1.2+0.7+1.4 = 0.75.

So when the openraiser has a tight range, 3betting is not good. If he's looser 3betting is +EV. On top of that calling is worse in the second case, because a lot of his range won't stack off if we hit a set.

[traz]

Some of these EV calculations are bad because we're not really concerned with the EV we get from stealing his raise. It negates the value out of our hand and is identical to 3betting with 72.

What's relevant is his calling range...his opening range is pretty useless.

[kroeliewoelie]

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Some of these EV calculations are bad because we're not really concerned with the EV we get from stealing his raise. It negates the value out of our hand and is identical to 3betting with 72.

What's relevant is his calling range...his opening range is pretty useless.

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But how often do you get to showdown? If your not doing anything fancy that is not very often. In less than 10% of the cases the hand gets past the flop i.e. MP calls both preflop and on the flop. In these cases we have 9% equity, so our hand doesn't have much value. Our hand is only valuable when both we and MP are getting fancy.

[traz]

what?

[Milky]

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What's relevant is his calling range...his opening range is pretty useless.

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This is so key. You 3bet w/99/TT only if 99/TT is ahead of his 3bet CALLING range. If he's only calling with TT+/AK then it's better just to call, as you're basically turning your hand (which has a lot of value) into a bluff.

The same goes for 3betting small/mid pocket pairs. I used to do this to blind steals but after talking through it with my coach (yay free coaching, thanks Luke) you're basically turning those hands into bluffs, when they have way too much value.

Your 3bet range should be pretty polarized between pure bluffs (54s-98s type hands) and TT+,AQs+ and should be adjusted based on how your opponent plays. If his opening range is wide but his 3bet CALLING range is tight, then you can add more bluffs to your 3bet range. If he's calling 3bets loose then you need to tighten up your bluffs and stick to value bets, but at the same time lower your 3bet standards (so include hands like 99/TT, AQ, KQ, sometimes even AJs/KJs. It all depends on their 3bet calling range).

[ama0330]

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What's relevant is his calling range...his opening range is pretty useless.

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This is so key. You 3bet w/99/TT only if 99/TT is ahead of his 3bet CALLING range. If he's only calling with TT+/AK then it's better just to call, as you're basically turning your hand (which has a lot of value) into a bluff.

The same goes for 3betting small/mid pocket pairs. I used to do this to blind steals but after talking through it with my coach (yay free coaching, thanks Luke) you're basically turning those hands into bluffs, when they have way too much value.

Your 3bet range should be pretty polarized between pure bluffs (54s-98s type hands) and TT+,AQs+ and should be adjusted based on how your opponent plays. If his opening range is wide but his 3bet CALLING range is tight, then you can add more bluffs to your 3bet range. If he's calling 3bets loose then you need to tighten up your bluffs and stick to value bets, but at the same time lower your 3bet standards (so include hands like 99/TT, AQ, KQ, sometimes even AJs/KJs. It all depends on their 3bet calling range).

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[kav]

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This is so key. You 3bet w/99/TT only if 99/TT is ahead of his 3bet CALLING range. If he's only calling with TT+/AK then it's better just to call, as you're basically turning your hand (which has a lot of value) into a bluff.

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I don't get it. Even if I know my opponent is only calling with TT+/AK I still show a profit 3betting.

If he opens with 25% of his hands but only calls with TT+/AK (14% of the hands he is opening with), I'm winning his PFR plus blinds 86% of the time and losing my 3bet only 14%.

Plus, the times he does call I have a big information advantage that I can play my hand almost perfectly if I hit the flop.

Am I missing something here? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Cheers!