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#1
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Re: UFC 77 Discussion thread
viscant,
thanks for the sylvia play |
#2
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Re: UFC 77 Discussion thread
Perf's pick went undefeated tonight. MONEYSHOT!!
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#3
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Re: UFC 77 Discussion thread
igetbadbeat + performify consensus plays = $$$$$
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#4
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Re: UFC 77 Discussion thread
[ QUOTE ]
Perf's pick went undefeated tonight. MONEYSHOT!! [/ QUOTE ] |
#5
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Re: UFC 77 Discussion thread
[ QUOTE ]
Perf's pick went undefeated tonight. MONEYSHOT!! [/ QUOTE ] everyone who posted official plays in this thread went perfect. I hate betcris for removing fight parlays. [ QUOTE ] Obviously no time for a long winded writeup, but for what it's worth... Silva NO PLAY Line is good. Franklin's hand is healed, he knows to avoid the clinch, judges will award him close rounds. (OK, OK... I'll have a little on Silva, but that's because I love the guy, not because the bet is +EV) Timmah +156 1.5u to win 2.34u. Vera is unexperienced against quality, likely has rust... Timmah has good chin, longer reach, more power, and only 3 rounds to avoid gassing. Okami -251 1.88u to win .75u. McDonald is a slob in the gas/determination department. A very talented slob, but a slob nonetheless. Okami grinds decision. Robinson +156 .5u to win .78u. Belcher +106 .75u to win .8u. [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I got Anderson Silva 3u to win 1.5u (-200) Tim Sylvia 1.5u to win 2.4u (+160) Yushin Okami 1.8u to win .75u (-240) Alvin Robinson .5u to win .7u (+140) Silva is better on the feet, hard to control even if you're on top unless you are matt hughes-esque, and he has 5 rounds to finish. I think Rich is in deep water here. Brandon Vera has all the skills and tools to beat Tim Sylvia...one well placed shot and then a sub could mean the biggest win of his career and a title shot...but I don't see him executing it often enough for him to be that much of a favorite, looks more like 1:1 to me. Some factors would prevent me from betting Sylvia @ 1:1 though. Yushin Okami - I think he's going to grind out Jason macDonald. MacDonald, IMO, has gotten really lucky with his run in the UFC, i dont think it's gonna continue. Personally I think MacDonald shoulda really focused on his standup, but I dont' think that's what happened. Alvin Robinson is a beast and I think it will be a good fight. [/ QUOTE ] |
#6
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Re: UFC 77 Discussion thread
i worry about following perf's picks these days, with the growth of ufcjunkie. are they big enough, and is there enough of a lack of other 'authorities' that he's moving the lines?
Come fight time, the only one I found that hadn't moved in his favour is the sylvia one. |
#7
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Re: UFC 77 Discussion thread
The Sylvia fight was basically worst case scenario. That was the worst Tim that could have possibly come out. Still a fairly easy win. I expected the fight to go more like round 3 the whole time with Tim stalking and battering. Oh well whatever, it was a win.
Also I wouldn't worry about the lines moving just yet. The public is still very green when it comes to picking MMA. People are betting their hearts way more than their heads; popular fighters are overrated very frequently. Also, judging by how little it seems like the lines move post weighins, it seems like the smart money is a smaller percentage of the money wagered, at least as opposed to how boxing usually works. I could be wrong, but I think MMA betting will stay juicy for at least a few more months. There's been one or two silly lines on every numbered UFC for the past 5-6 months. I don't see this changing. |
#8
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Re: UFC 77 Discussion thread
Man Rich got owned again I thought silva would win but I thought rich would at least land some decent stuff
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#9
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Re: UFC 77 Discussion thread
Heh I gave someone 3 to 1 on the Sylvia fight and they took it. Vera is not a heavyweight and shouldn't be fighting a high caliber heavyweight fighter. His wins were over nobodies and they were a long time ago and the UFC has packed the talent since then. Vera can't knock Sylvia out so I knew Sylvia would at least win with boring jabs/size control...dunno how he got the fight in the first place.
I offered 3 to 1 on the Silva fight and my buddy didn't take it but the results showed why. Franklin is a striker and game over when you fight the worst case scenario Muay Thai fighter. Silva just looked unbeatable. Pretty much taunted Rich with his dance dodging lol. |
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