**Atlanta Braves offseason thread

[jtown1010]

I'm pretty sure I remember Chipper renegotiating his deal to give the Braves some pretty significant financial flexibility a couple years ago. He can't be that selfish, but I understand where Smoltz is coming from. Smoltz has always seemed like a throwback type player that thinks it's important to play through pain. Ironically, of all the long time Braves from the 90's-00's he's missed the most time from injuries, but he's also pitched through pain a lot and has always been a big time performer in big games.

Do you guys think this team needs to add another bat to be competitive for the World Series? If you had the choice between a middle of the order hitting outfielder(A.Jones, T.Hunter, A.Rowand), a quality closer (F.Cordero), or a #2-3 type starting pitcher, what would be the best fit for this team?

Would it be worth it to take advantage of having Smoltz, Teixiera, and Glavine this year and sacrifice some top prospects in some sort of trade for a differance maker? Would Shaefer/Heyward, Jurrjens, and Lillibridge be a package that could get someone like Johan Santana or Jake Peavy?

[THAY3R]

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Perhaps you would understand part of the reasoning if you looked beyond his minor league stats but at his limited mlb time.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/player...e?statsId=8105


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lol /thread

[Vyse]

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Perhaps you would understand part of the reasoning if you looked beyond his minor league stats but at his limited mlb time.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/player...e?statsId=8105

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HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.

Wow.

[Vyse]

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PECOTA projected Anderson to an eqa in the neighborhood of ~.240 heading into this year. That will come down slightly. They had him with a defensive WARP of 2.0 over ~125 games. That won't come down. Even if he's a replacement level hitter, PECOTA will project him as a two win player. Giving him a projection of 1.5 is conservative.

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Actually, I have the book in my hands right now. PECOTA projected a .237 EqA and -3 defense in 118 games. He had -12 defense in Double-A in 06. He's not good defensively. They called him "an aspiring fifth outfielder type." Sounds fun.

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Da Vanon's WARP the last three years? (-.3),1.5, 1.3, he's 34, and not good defensively. Da Vanon is clearly a worse option than Josh Anderson regardless of price.

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Stop cherrypicking stupid stats, like seriously. He basically didn't play at all this year. He still has a career .349 OBP and a .749 OPS. Career .273 Eqa. Dude, Anderson can't even get a 700 OPS IN TRIPLE A. And his D, judging by BP's metrics anyway, is about the same as Anderson's.... What are you smoking?

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The 35 year old Cliff Floyd's WARP over the last two years? 1.4 and 1.6. No, he's not suddenly going to stay healthy. He's good for 300 PA max. With Floyd you lose defense at THREE positions. Again, clearly a worse option than Josh Anderson regardless of price.

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Do you know the meaning of the word platoon? Are you intentionally being as dumb as possible and cherry picking the worst stats you can? He's good against righties and his D is barely below to moderately below average, not horrible. Way more wins than Anderson will provide.

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Geoff Jenkins is 33 years old and has posted WARPs of 3.3 in each of the last two years. He's got that 6.9 from 2005 to cling to.

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The fact that you think the only thing you need to analyze players is WARP shows that a) you're either really bad at utilizing sabermetric tools or b) you suck at playing Devil's Advocate.

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At least he's a clear upgrade in talent over Anderson. You'd still be downgrading defensively in two spots, which decreases some of the benefit. If Jenkins will sign a 1 year, $4MM deal, he'd be a wash with Anderson in terms of value, although probably worth it if they can't spend the money elsewhere. There is a strong argument that money could be better spent on draft picks in June allowing them to trade a prospect for a rental in the second half of the season.

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lol @ you thinking Anderson's worth it just because you project him as a 1.5 win player who makes 400K.

A 25-year-old had his worst professional season ever and coming in he was already "good" for a .237 EqA with negative defense. What?

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For crying out loud! Brandon Jones and Gregor Blanco are better options than the first two guys you mentioned and still more cost effective than Jenkins. Those are the two guys you should be comparing Anderson against, not some old nag free agents.

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The main value in FA is platoons, which are easy and cheap to find. I can't and won't take you seriously if all you throw out is "lolol guy had x.x WARP and I'm not going to mention his playing time or anything else, WARP = all."

[rwperu34]

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Actually, I have the book in my hands right now. PECOTA projected a .237 EqA and -3 defense in 118 games.

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Please click this link.

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The main value in FA is platoons, which are easy and cheap to find. I can't and won't take you seriously if all you throw out is "lolol guy had x.x WARP and I'm not going to mention his playing time or anything else, WARP = all."


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I wonder if Josh Anderson's stats would be better if he only played against RHP?

[leehrat]

Vyse, what is wrong with you? You dismiss his limited number of mlb at bats because of the small sample size. Guess what, the Braves scouts obviously saw something in his limited time that made them feel comfortable enough to trade away their long relief man for him. Do you think they just did that because they wanted a career minor league scrub?? I doubt it. Is it because they are cutting payroll?? Well we know that isn't true because their president said they would add "many million more".

So there are two possibilities using your logic: 1) You think Frank Wren and the scouts are complete morons for making this deal. 2) You think that Wren wants to destroy the franchise. OK, fair enough.

One more thing. How can you not understand that Wren made the move as an insurance policy in case they do not sign a CF'er? The Braves WILL NOT spend 8-10 million more on a player like Mike Cameron who may only start half the year if they feel that Jordan Schafer will be ready to start midseason a la Jeff Francouer, Brian McCann, Yunel Escobar, etc. Oh wait, you didn't know that. You decided to come in and bitch up a thread calling people out for their lack of knowledge and punishing them for it when you don't know a damn thing about the Braves. You are a troll. Stop posting in this thread.

[rwperu34]

What I really want to know is how I got corraled into throwin my lot in with Josh Anderson? The guy is a fourth outfieder and we all know it. Sometimes fourth outfielders are pushed into duty, and if that happens with Anderson, it wouldn't be the end of the world for the Braves. They can make up everything they lose, which is very little, in the Anderson vs Jenkins/Davanon/Floyd debacle by taking that FA money and inking an extra high ceiling draft pick or two then trading a couple of prospects for a big time addition, you know, like Mark Teixeira, at the trade deadline.

Another side benefit, if Anderson runs hot for a couple of months, his value can skyrocket and HE could be the main peice to trade. Everybody knows what Floyd/Davanon/Jenkins are, and they will fetch nothing as far as 2008 help goes.

The more I look at it, the more my original assesment of the situation seems correct. Kenny Lofton and Andruw Jones on one year deals are the only free agent outfielders that make sense for the Braves. I was wrong about one thing. Luis Gonzalez does not make sense.

[Vyse]

Dude, stop using WARP.

That is all.

[CrazyPsycho]

Ugh, Braves fans. It's bad when I side with Vyse.

[Vyse]

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Another side benefit, if Anderson runs hot for a couple of months, his value can skyrocket and HE could be the main peice to trade.

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I kind of ignored almost all of your post once I saw you making the same mistakes, but lmfao, I caught this when reading that new post right above me. Dude, I used to think you were a good poster. Now I know you're just another dude I can waste my time on and not take seriously.