NL200: AK any value in betting?

[HitmanHaydon]

Villian is 16.8/10.8/3.8 his street by street AF is 8.0/1.0/1.0 over about 350 hands.
I've been playing solid about 11/8/3

I can't see I get a call from anything I beat if I bet here, and with his low river AF I think he checks behind hands we beat. So if I check and he pushes can I call?


Poker Stars, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

UTG+1: $200
UTG+2: $242.65
MP1: $202
MP2: $202.75
CO: $34
BTN: $283.25
Hero (SB): $201
BB: $456.90
UTG: $99.45

Pre-Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (SB)
UTG calls $2, 2 folds, <font color="red">MP1 raises to $10</font>, 3 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $36</font>, 2 folds, MP1 calls $26

Flop: ($76) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $56</font>, MP1 calls $56

Turn: ($188) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] [ A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ] (2 Players)
Hero checks, MP1 checks

River: ($188) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] [ T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ] (2 Players)
Hero?

[Albert Moulton]

You hit your top pair on the turn. There is $188 in the pot and you have $109 left in the effective stacks.

I think you should push the turn. You pay off hands like QQ, AA and AQ, but since his original PFR range is something like 77+,A9s+,KTs+,QJs,ATo+,KQo at ~11% (plus the possibility of the occasional suited connector like 78s), you shut down any draws, get AJ and AT (especially AsJs/AsTs) to call as underdogs.

I think checking the turn given the size of the pot is a mistake. It's not like you can fold. And given his low AF it is unlikely that he will bluff if you check, and more likely that he might call with worse hands if you bet.

[rdrr]

I play it the same and shove river

[PenguinExpress]

You gotta shove either the turn or the river.

[RyanCMU]

[ QUOTE ]
I play it the same and shove river

[/ QUOTE ]

What worse hands are ever calling a river shove? What better hands are ever folding? You think villain would play AK this way and then fold the river? I don't.

[HitmanHaydon]

I've playing fairly solid, I think his calling range PF will be fairly tight. AQ+ TT+, maybe tighter.

[rdrr]

you give people too much credit for having brain cells, KK calls here all the time, and folding AK is a freeroll, obv [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[SABR42]

Shove turn.

[RyanCMU]

I'm saying the only advantage I think to betting river is that we may potentially fold out AK, and I just don't think thats likely at all.

Plus, i don't think any competent TAG ever pays this river off w/ KK, its a pretty ballsy call putting us on JJ. (Granted, I could definatly see how a villain could put us on JJ, well, maybe I think w/ a hand like JJ we are two barreling that A turn an awful lot, maybe, Idk.)

I think shoving the turn is a much better line then shoving the river.

[RapidEvolution]

[ QUOTE ]
You hit your top pair on the turn. There is $188 in the pot and you have $109 left in the effective stacks.

I think you should push the turn. You pay off hands like QQ, AA and AQ, but since his original PFR range is something like 77+,A9s+,KTs+,QJs,ATo+,KQo at ~11% (plus the possibility of the occasional suited connector like 78s), you shut down any draws, get AJ and AT (especially AsJs/AsTs) to call as underdogs.

I think checking the turn given the size of the pot is a mistake. It's not like you can fold. And given his low AF it is unlikely that he will bluff if you check, and more likely that he might call with worse hands if you bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sometimes I hate when Albert posts, because I find myself saying "dammit, he said that already!" [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]