Dancing With the Stars 5

[stereoman]

Yeah, yeah I got it wrong. Few people would have said Sabrina was going to be eliminated and for money.

I generally don't follow the odds on Matchbook but was there any odds movement last week on Sabrina being eliminated?

Just looking at the odds on who'll be eliminated this week and they're kinda stingy:

Will Helio be eliminated? Yes +1000, No n/a
Will Cameron be eliminated? Yes n/a, No -800
Will Marie be eliminated? Yes +200, No n/a
Will Jane be eliminated? Yes n/a, No -280
Will Melanie be eliminated? Yes n/a, No -800
Will Jennie be eliminated? Yes +400, No -1000

Ugh. I have no interest in betting or setting the odds at Matchbook even if the lines right now are goading me into thinking Jane's being set up to be eliminated this week.

You'd have to be a fan, an insider or someone who hates money to bet money on the eliminations.

[llabb]

Oh, for sure. Wasn't ragging on you about last week at all. No one serious anywhere was predicting Sabrina to go last week, including myself. Have had my share of hits and misses this season also.

But I disagree about Matchbook and the eliminations. There is money to be made there, it's just not a big market until show-day.

Those odds are simply a couple people's offers. By show-time Mon and Tues, there should be a lot more offers and better odds.

And if people think that Marie and Jane are a near coinflip to go, then they would be near +/-100 to go. You can get Marie for +200. That's a lot of room for edge/error already. Taking a near 50% prop (if that's your estimate) and getting an edge all the way down to 33%, a 17% margin for error.

[darko3131]

Man I wish I could play at matchbook, I mop up on any reality shows. I refuse to deposit into an online sportsbook though, anyone know how I can get a couple of bucks on there maybe with a promo code or anything?

Just wanted to weigh in on the Sabrina elimination. I actually wasn't shocked she went. It was no secret her scores were carrying her, so scoring a 25 was trouble. I thought for sure the bottom 2 would have been Jane and Sabrina with Jane being the boot though. Oh well, the old food poisoning trick won't save the old bag this week hopefully- because I didn't envision my money being tied up for 2 weeks.

[thing85]

lol...Bodog has Helio to win at +100 and male to win at +130.

[darko3131]

Word is that Helio's phone line didn't work for a good 10-15 minutes last night. Since voting is only open for what 30-60 minutes? that can't be good. This Jane lady is pretty good, she fakes food poisioning one week to take out Sabrina, now she's jamming phone lines in an attempt to take out Helio, what's next taking a lead pipe to Mel's knee [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

I don't watch on Monday's so I'm not sure how the scores were but Jane is bottom 2 this week, who joins her is a ? between Cameron, Mel, and hate to say it Helio.

[llabb]

Lol at the Jane comments, funny stuff. Where is your "word" from? There's reports of non-functioning phone lines every week, this year more than usual. Different parts of the country experience different difficulties, not sure what the deal is. There's less volume than AI, so it shouldn't be local exchange volume.

Scores were:
Mel 54
Jennie 53
Helio 52
Marie 52
Cam 51
Jane 50

Matchbook oddsmakers favor Jane going home, but there's tons of value if you think anyone else is going.

[centris]

Nice work Darko 3 for 3! Any other suggestions? Here is a cross post taht I made in teh sports betting chatter thread:

There is a really tiny arb available for Dancing with teh Stars betting:

Males wins Bodog +145
Melanie wins Matchbook +350
Maria wins Bodog +500
Jennie wins Bodog +550

The corresponding probabilities add up to less than 1 meaning it is arbable, but I am not sure how to calculate the correct proportion to bet on each. And since the bodog bets are capped at 50$ I bet it is worth less than a dollar. But generally does anyone have a link to an arb calculator for more than two bets?