NL100....do you like this river decision

[BT2]

my decision was to NOT value bet

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Button ($39.80)
SB ($57.05)
BB ($244.25)
UTG ($218.90)
UTG+1 ($103.15)
MP1 ($240.05)
MP2 ($114.90)
MP3 ($98.50)
Hero ($98)

Preflop: Hero is CO with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $4</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls $3.

Flop: ($8.50) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $6</font>, BB calls $6.

Turn: ($20.50) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $16</font>, BB calls $16.

River: ($52.50) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: $52.50

[Mr_Donktastic]

Why didn't you bet? What was your reasoning?

Edit: I think this seems like a prefect spot for a value bet. There are plausible hands that can call that you beat. You just have to be able to fold to a rr on the off chance that villian has the nuts (I don't see people check/raise he river much though...they probably would have raised the turn)

[CalledDownLight]

Its probably a spot I bet like almost always. You will obviously fold a lot of flush draws that wiffed but some aces or other pairs will also call. I think that Q9 is the only hand you could be afraid of in this situation. If I was villian then I'm c/r Q9 here, but you can't be afraid of one hand. Too much missed value from other possible hands.

[MyTurn2Raise]

depends on the villain

verse loose-passives, I fire away again

Against nitty players with low WTSD and high W$SD, I just check.

[BT2]

here is my range for him:
1. i didnt put him on an ace because he called flop(i realize many players call anyway).
2. I didn't put him middle pair or something because he is calling my huge double barrel.

i figured he either has a missed draw, a set he has been slowplaying, or a Q9. I see no reason to bet against any of those on the river.

thoughts?

[Cry Me A River]

[ QUOTE ]

i figured he either has a missed draw, a set he has been slowplaying, or a Q9. I see no reason to bet against any of those on the river.


[/ QUOTE ]

Any reads on villain? Particularly his aggression? Would he reraise you on the flop with JT or a set? If you're worried that he's drawn out on you, I'd be a lot more concerned about KQ, particularly KQ[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. However, I would have expected him to make some kind of a bet by now with the nuts or on the flop with a big combo draw unless he's really passive.

I'm a little ambivalent about value betting the river, without a read - If he's a calling station then I'd value bet him for sure, looking for calls from QJ/KJ/JT/J9/AK/AQ, hell 99 or some junk Ace wouldn't surprise me. But if he's a decent player there's not a lot of hands he's going to call a third barrel with that you beat - JT, AK/AQ, maybe a weaker Ace if he's having a bad day...

[Jurrr]

Read dependent. If you are LAGish then value bet. If villain is CS then value bet. If villain is a slowplayer then check behind.

[Mr_Donktastic]

[ QUOTE ]
here is my range for him:
1. i didnt put him on an ace because he called flop(i realize many players call anyway).
2. I didn't put him middle pair or something because he is calling my huge double barrel.

i figured he either has a missed draw, a set he has been slowplaying, or a Q9. I see no reason to bet against any of those on the river.

thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's a balancing act. He will either fold those missed draws, call and lose with one pair or two pair hands, call and win (very very unlikely, maybe AJ or a set if he's weak-tight) or c/r you with a str8, in which case you HAVE to fold.

With this board I think there are enough ways that he can call and lose that it outweighs the possibility of getting c/r.

And I don't think most players at this level are tricky enough to c/r the river on a bluff. I don't even think many would chcek every street to set up a river c/r. Some, yes, but not many.

There's no shame in value betting the river and then folding if making that value bet will make you money in the long term.

[jetsetboy]

vnh, I should learn to do this.

Does the fact that we are holding the A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] changes anything ? I mean if we have for exemple A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]X[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] would be a possible holding for him that could call a river bet (in particular A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]/A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]/A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]/A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]).