$10NL - AK in mid position

[Bramsterdam]

You can't call and then fold when the flop comes like A-x-x or K-x-x in my opinion.

This is the moment where you have to decide wheter you feel good when the flop hits like that or not. If you call and the flop comes like that, you can't get away from it.

[obloni]

Yea I was thinking that I would have to push if an A or K fell on the flop.

I don't think he would have 3bet with 10-10; so that leaves JJ, QQ, KK, AA and AK that he would have 3bet with.

30% of the time an A or K would drop;
and when I push, he'll fold if he has JJ/QQ and KK too if the board is an A.
So really, my push on the flop is -EV since he won't call with a hand that loses to mine.

1/6 of the time A will drop, and he will only call with AA and AK so 1/6 * 1/5 * $9.00 = -$0.30
if he folds, then I win 1/6 * 3/5 * $5.00 = +$0.5

1/6 of the time K will drop, and he will call with AA,AK,KK
he calls, 1/6 * 2/5 * $9.00 = -$0.60
he folds, 1/6 * 2/5 * $5.00 = +$0.35

the other 2/3 of the time I flop nothing,
2/3 * $1.50 = -$1.00

Sum them up, the EV is -$1.05;
If i folded preflop though it would have only cost me -$0.60.
Of course, these calculations are inaccurate since even if I was losing I could hit runner-runner and things like that to win; and also the fact that he might find his JJ/QQ/KK hard to let go and call my push.


As played I folded preflop, thinking it would be a hard spot for me to play my AK.