Sat Bubble With Aces

[miami32]

Folding here is the worst play ever. You have to shove. You are playing a satellite. Shove, double up and win. Stop worrying about what ifs. If you are posting this cause you shoved and some fool beat you. TL, it happens. Folding AA in this spot is the worst thing you could do here.

[MJBuddy]

[ QUOTE ]
The correct answer partially depends on how terrible everyone else plays. I mean, theoretically, you could be approximately 6/8 to get a seat right now, which is pretty damn good. If it is that good, does pushing AA here increase or decrease your chances of getting a seat?

So the question is, what is the probability that you can win a seat by folding?

What is the probability that you shove and lose?
What is the probability that you win a seat if you shove and win?

Obviously the math requires some estimation, but FWIW, I'd shove.

[/ QUOTE ]


I've seen bad play quicken bubbles and extend them waaaaay too long, so typically I default to "what would I do if everyone was playing perfectly" unless the Ms were so low that folding is the only way to garuntee my seat.

[keith1174]

without a doubt you have to push and double up, maybe you push get a call or possibly 2 and AA hold up and there is nothing to worry about. If you fold then the short stacks end up doubling up somehow, you are in lots of trouble and maybe have to push later on with 88 or like AQ KQ something like that. much rather burn in flames with AA then 88 KQ AJ.