PokerFink's 2007 NFC Rankings (Week 8)

PokerFink · #1 11-01-2007, 03:02 PM

Disclaimer: My rankings are NOT a traditional power rankings. They are projective, meaning we are ranking based on where teams will finish. Rankings are done based on the playoff guidelines, meaning the division winners get the top four seeds. For a full explanation, please see this post. Also, when I list a team's NFL rank, it's based on DVOA unless otherwise noted.

[/b] 1. DALLAS (6-1) : OHHDEE, OHHDEE OHHDEE OHHDEE… OHHDEE… OHHHHHHHDEE. OHHDEE, OHHDEE OHHDEE OHHDEE… OHHDEE… OHHHHHHHDEE. (Don't get it? Try here. And check out this while you're at it. Ahhh, good times.) NEXT: @ Philadelphia.

 2. GREEN BAY (6-1) : For all the great catches by Harrison, sick moves by Hester, crunching hits by Roy Williams, electrifying runs by Tomlinson and pancake blocks by Shawn Andrews, there is still nothing quite like the beauty and pinpoint accuracy of the perfectly thrown deep ball. Kudos to Favre for a great throw and a monster game: 21 of 27, 331 yards, 2 scores, 0 picks and 11.6 net yards per pass. NEXT: @ Kansas City.

 3. TAMPA BAY (4-4) : After throwing zero interceptions in the first seven weeks, Garcia threw three this week (although one was in desperation time), including a pick-six. The turnovers proved to be the difference in a game that Tampa really dominated, out gaining Jacksonville by more than 150 yards. With Carolina at 4-3 (and actually in first place) and the Saints on a charge, things are getting a little hairy for Tampa. NEXT: vs. Arizona.

 4. SEATTLE (4-3) : After a week off, the Hawks head to Cleveland this week in what figures to be a good, even matchup. Seattle's mediocre offense should be able to move the ball against Cleveland's terrible defense, while Seattle's good defense should have trouble with Cleveland's even better offense. And both teams boast great special teams. NEXT: @ Cleveland.

 5. NEW YORK (6-2) : Huge kudos this week for Tom Coughlin, who has completely changed his approach with not only his team, but the media and the organization as a whole. I'm sure many of you saw the comments in Bill Simmons' mailbag last week, but check out the whole article, found here. NEXT: Bye.

 6. WASHINGTON (4-3) : Yes, Washington got completely obliterated this week. Yes, Washington's defensive rating fell from 1st to 5th in one game. Yes, Jason Campbell has struggled over the past few weeks. But the Skins are still in good shape, getting an easy one against the Jets this week while all the teams below them figure to lose. Plus, they have already beaten Detroit, giving them an important tiebreaker. NEXT: @ New York Jets.

 7. DETROIT (5-2) : Mike Martz dialed up the running game this week, handing it to Kevin Jones 23 times for 105 yards. They also added in two carries by fullback Jon Bradly, another end-around to Calvin Johnson (who continues to gain good yardage on runs, romping for 11 this week) and even a carry by TJ Duckett. It all added up to 120 yards on 27 carries (4.4ypc). The Lions are actually just as good at running the football as they are at passing it (ranked 16th in both in terms of value per play), so perhaps a more balanced attack will help in the long run. It will certainly help keep opposing pass rushers off of Jon Kitna. NEXT: vs. Denver.

 8. CAROLINA (4-3) : The Panthers took the opening kickoff and embarked on an 18-play, 11-minute scoring odyssey. It was all downhill from there. NEXT: @ Tennessee.

 9. ARIZONA (3-4) : With just 10 yards this week, Edge will hit 11,000 for his career, which leads all active running backs by a wide margin (Fred Taylor is second, more than 1,000 behind). Edge's 605 yards are 5th in the NFL, but don't let the raw numbers fool you. He leads the league in carries with 156, so of course he will have a lot of yards. He's only 14th in DPAR and 27th in DVOA, with a 3.8ypc average and a low success rate (ranked 22nd). He also has 3 fumbles. NEXT: @ Tampa Bay.

 10. NEW ORLEANS (3-4) *UP 3* : After dominating Atlanta and San Francisco the last two weeks, the Saints have their sights on a real opponent. And they match up very well with Jacksonville. With David Gerrard out, the Jags must rely on their running game. The Saints can stop that, ranking 8th in the league against the run. Their weakness is stopping the pass (ranked 28th), but Quinn Gray is not the man to take advantage of that weakness. NEXT: vs. Jacksonville.

 11. PHILADELPHIA (3-4) : On their first 1st and goal (from the 2), Andy Reid brought out the same old crap that's failed all year. One failed run, followed by two failed McNabb rollouts. Field goal. On their second 1st and goal (from the 6), the Eagles finally got the memo that their red zone playcalling needed some help. They went with the shovel pass, a play that has McNabb has executed extremely well over the years. Touchdown. On their third 1st and goal (from the 4), they finally decided to power run like everyone else in the NFL. Run, run, touchdown. See how easy that is? NEXT: vs. Dallas.

 12. CHICAGO (3-5) *DOWN 2* : Sexy Rexy might unleash the dragon at inopportune times, but at least he has the arm to get the ball there. Griese (22/40 - 208 - 1td - 4int - 4.6net/pass), on the other hand, threw a couple of complete ducks this week that were easy pickings for the Detroit safeties. Remember what the DVOA projections said about the Chicago defense and special teams regressing? Well, it happened. The defense has gone from 2nd to 19th, and the special teams from 1st to 6th. NEXT: Bye.

 13. MINNESOTA (2-5) *DOWN 1* : Adrian Peterson is studly, but the Eagles overloaded the box time and time again, holding him and Chester Taylor to just 89 yards on 26 carries (3.4ypc). The Vikings need to find a quarterback, some receivers and a way to stretch the field, or their offense will go the way of San Francisco's, and Peterson will go the way of the once studly but now struggling Frank Gore. Also, what is up with Brad Childress costing his team two timeouts with two ridiculously bad challenges? NEXT: vs. San Diego.

 14. ATLANTA (1-6) *UP 1* : Put up or shut up? DeAngelo Hall seems to be taking the latter route, imposing a media blackout for the rest of the season. Hall is refusing to talk to reporters except after games. NEXT: vs. San Francisco.

 15. SAN FRANCISCO (2-5) *DOWN 1* : How is it that Alex Smith (-69 DPAR 05-07) still has a starting job, and Trent Dilfer (-7 DPAR 05-07) still has a backup job, while Jake Plummer (149 DPAR 04-06) doesn't even have a job? How does that make sense? NEXT: @ Atlanta.

 16. ST. LOUIS (0-8) : Well, at least they won't lose this week. [b] NEXT: Bye.

PokerFink · #2 11-01-2007, 03:05 PM

Week 8 Polls

Matt Williams · #3 11-01-2007, 03:05 PM

Fink,
If the G-Men and Cowboys had the same record, which would you say is the better team?

PokerFink · #4 11-01-2007, 03:11 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If the G-Men and Cowboys had the same record, which would you say is the better team?

[/ QUOTE ]

Dallas. Then Green Bay, then New York.

lastchance · #5 11-01-2007, 03:14 PM

Looks good. Philly getting boned by being their future schedule.

SL__72 · #6 11-01-2007, 03:17 PM

I'm pretty sure Childress has 4 bad challanges in 2 weeks now.

PokerFink · #7 11-01-2007, 03:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm pretty sure Childress has 4 bad challanges in 2 weeks now.

[/ QUOTE ]

What were the ones last week? I didn't see the game.

Semtex · #8 11-01-2007, 03:20 PM

glad to see the saints are finally not wallowing at the bottom. you might even want to switch them with carolina. remember how last week i said there was a better than 50/50 chance they'd be tied with the panthers after 3 weeks, then took it back because i was treating a 2 game lead like a 1 game lead? well i forgot gerrard isn't going to play during the one tough game they have in that 3 week stretch. the saints might very well be tied with carolina after they blow out the rams next week.

also, not to be an ass, but i am going to rub this in your face for a while. i've been calling for the saints to be up here for three weeks now.

i'd also put detroit above washington. do you have them below because of a rough remaining schedule? i haven't looked at the schedules, but detroit has a high powered offense and their defense is playing better, while washington has a high powered defense and i am in no way convinced their offense is anything except wildly inconsistent.

TheRover · #9 11-01-2007, 03:20 PM

I don't think Jake Plummer wants a job. The Vikings are stupid for not signing Jeff George to immediately improve their QB situation.

tdarko · #10 11-01-2007, 03:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If the G-Men and Cowboys had the same record, which would you say is the better team?

[/ QUOTE ]

Let's throw out the GB week 1 game and assume for the first time ever there was a week 2 bye! or do you want to assume there was a week 1 bye and Dallas didn't beat NY? That is the tough part about these hypotheticals, they get real grey real quick.

Lets look at this win streak:

@ Was 24-17 (good win though I seem to be a minority when it comes to Was--I believe that they really aren't that great)
vs. Philly 16-3 (Philly was super banged up and Osi destroyed the rookie that was put in front of him--this game made me feel bad for Philly and especially McNabb)
vs. NYJ 35-24 (What a bad team)
@ Atl 31-10 (What a bad team)
vs. SF 33-15 (What a God awful team)
Mia 13-10 (Beat possibly the worst team in the league by 3 points)

I think they are a good team and one of the top 4 in the NFC but I just don't think we can really know what the deal is yet until we get to the meat and potatoes. We will find out very soon though, just like we will w/ Dallas (they have three div games coming up) and a few other teams as well.

I do think that Dallas will be a 1 point dog to NYG in NY.

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