presidential election

[plzdontbanme]

why isn't there a line on the election and why dont ppl bet on it?

[CardSharpCook]

wsex.

[Lori]

Betfair prices, so you likely can't get on, but as a guide:

Rep candidate:
Giuliani +122
Romney +265
Paul +1400
McCain +1500
Thompson +1900
Huckabee +1100

Dem:

Clinton -250
Obama +460
Gore +2300
Edwards +1850

President:

Dem -200
Rep +192

[Rustjive]

Looking at WSEX prices there's value in shorting candidates like Ron Paul and Fred Thompson for Rep. Nom, but who wants to hold onto futures for that long for a 4% return on non-negligible risk? Interesting to hear an analysis on +EV choice to win though.

[Thremp]

[ QUOTE ]
Looking at WSEX prices there's value in shorting candidates like Ron Paul and Fred Thompson for Rep. Nom, but who wants to hold onto futures for that long for a 4% return on non-negligible risk? Interesting to hear an analysis on +EV choice to win though.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd be interested in something closer and doing a middle on something like a Clinton/Obama ticket v Repubs. I think that ticket is a crash and burn, Edwards has got to get on there for a chance.

[Oatmeal]

My gut says there is a lot of value on Romney at +265. To greatly minimize risk you could put 1u on Rudy at +122 and 1u on Romney at +265. I'd estimate that > 90% of the time one of these 2 gets the nod and if I were booking I'd have both at -105.

[plzdontbanme]

or obama