Shorting the Canadian Logging Industry

[lambdb]

With the loonie playing even par with the US greenback, exports such as canadian logging should be taking a huge hit. Rumor has the loonie playing out a $1.05 US

Anyone here making a short play on some of these companies or think that a short here is wise?

lambdb

[ahnuld]

You cannot profit off this trade as almost everyone is aware of it, thus it is already priced into the securities.

[Yads]

Also the pinebeetle infestation, but yeah like ahnuld says this is priced into the securities as it is public knowledge.

[spino1i]

[ QUOTE ]
Also the pinebeetle infestation, but yeah like ahnuld says this is priced into the securities as it is public knowledge.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. Just because it is public knowledge does not mean you cant profit off of it. The fact that Hercules Offshore was merging with the more expensive Todco was public knowledge to all HERO shareholders, but that didnt stop the stock price from not going anywhere the day of but going down for 3 months afterwards (giving someone who wanted to short HERO for a profit an ample opportunity to do so).

I think you overestimate how smart the average investor is. If all public knowledge was priced in to a stock price, the market would be strongly efficient (which has been disproven by data) and most professional traders would be out there jobs. The fact is that most people who invest DONT do enough research (despite public info being there) and that is where you can make money. By doing the extra research the average person didnt.

[ahnuld]

I agree for smaller case things spino (like your example, and the merger opportunity that scorpion man alerted the forum to a few months back) but for something this obvious it is really hard to profit.

[Tornado69]

Lumber the pine beetle has destroyed can be harvested and is being harvested though and is used in houses still.