Ciaffone says BDF is more dangerous than FD. Why?

[PygmyHero]

This hand is from Bob Ciaffone's <u>Improve Your Poker.</u> The game is PLO. The limit is not stated, but I think it's fair to assume mid / high. I also assume it's full ring live, though this is not made clear either.

Sorry for the sparse hand details - I provide all the information that the book presents (pg. 99 if you want to review). I don't think that will be a problem since my question is general, and not about this hand per se.

Preflop: Hero is on button with T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Action before hero not stated, pot appears to be unraised.

Flop (pot size not stated): <font color="blue"> (Not sure how many players) </font> Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Checked around.

Turn (pot size not stated): <font color="blue"> (Not sure how many players) </font> 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Checked to Hero, <font color="red"> Hero bets pot, </font> 1 call, <font color="#666666"> everyone else folds </font>

River (pot size not stated): <font color="blue"> (2 players) </font> 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
<font color="red"> EP bets pot, </font> Hero...

Ciaffone argues for a call here, thinking the villain is likely to be bluffing for the following reasons:
<ul type="square">[*]Turn action indicates villain has a drawing hand,[*]Some draws did NOT get there on the river, [*]Villain may think you were on a draw and missed, [*]The two tens in your hand cut down on villain's straight possibilities, [*]With the flush on board, villain may have bet less or checked with a straight, and
[*](Quote from book): "The flush that hit was the two-flush that came on the flop, when everyone checked. The backdoor flush would have been more dangerous." [/list]I'm not particularly interested in the play of this hand, nor whether people think the river is a call. I'm really only interested in the assertion Ciaffone makes that the backdoor flush draw getting there would have been more dangerous than the one present on the flop. Can someone explain the rationale behind that?

*Edit: I just noticed this is PLO, not PLO8. However, I don't know if that affects the concept I'm asking about here. I don't play Omaha high, so I'm interested in this as it applies to O8OB. Which flush draw coming in is more dangerous - the one on the flop, or the backdoor?

[laeelin]

my guess would be that on the flop the flush draw would have probally bet on the flop or turn, so its much less likely that someone has that flush than the backdoor one.

The backdoor flush hitting after a turn call (after a flop check and turn check) makes it more likely that he had the flush draw that arrived on the turn than the one that was on the flop.

I'm not ANYTHING like an 08 expert though...

[prodonkey]

some draws didn't get there.. but most of them sure did. The 9 makes tons of straights possible now as well as the flush.

He is saying the backdoor draw is more dangerous because.. everyone checked that flop, usually meaning nobody has a good flush draw, or they'd have bet it since a good flush draw would also be connected to that board in some way.. wrap/gutshot/overs etc.

[PygmyHero]

Thanks for the responses. I thought about a good flush draw maybe wanting to bet that flop, but I wasn't sure. I was missing the key point that any good flush draw is going to have some sort of straight draw and overcards, making them more inclined to bet. Thanks for pointing that out prodonkey.

So, if I understand correctly, it sounds like you agree with Ciaffone's assertion about the BDFD for this particular hand, but not necessarily in general.

[I dunno]

[ QUOTE ]

So, if I understand correctly, it sounds like you agree with Ciaffone's assertion about the BDFD for this particular hand, but not necessarily in general.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you assume that the villain would have taken one stab by the turn with a flush draw, would have value bet a set on by the turn, and is smart enough not to value bet a straight on the river, then the river should be a call. But there are a lot of people that never semibluff and only bet when they make their hand, and there are also people that are going to bet their straight on the river. So it really comes down to knowing your opponents.

There are situations where I'd rather see the backdoor draw hit, depending on the action. The point of the article isn't that you should be more afraid of the backdoor flush, but rather that you should decide if the action makes sense when somebody represents a completed draw.

Also, if you held the T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], it should give you more reason to call.