Medium pp, paired flop and two overcards.

[Set_Wenker]

Hi guys.

UTG is 55.88/8.82/1.53
MP3 is 66.67/13.33/0.75

Online 1-2 10 players

Hero is MP1 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

PF: utg calls, hero calls, mp3 calls, bb checks.

Flop: (4,5 sb) 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
utg checks, hero bets, mp3 calls, bb folds, utg calls.

Turn: (3,75 bb) Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
utg checks, hero bets, mp3 calls, utg calls.

River6,75 bb) K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
utg checks, hero...

[fretelöo]

Raise PF!

I would c/call the river. If you bet, it's a bet/fold, imo.

[martybonus]

hrm, a PFR might be good here. 88 is sort of a speculative hand though so you'd want to play it in a multiway pot. but the again, a PFR here would probably be for value here. you're almost certainly ahead of UTG and MP3's range and a raise here would get it 3 way. you might even get it HU against UTG and buy the button.
guess it's whether you'd like to play this in a multiway pot as a speculative hand or whether you'd like to push your probable edge and take this down on the flop or turn.

flop bet is fine. their calls suggest rag broadways or something...maybe 2 OCs. their calls are probably incorrect so unless the turn is scary, you're stoked.

bet out on turn is fine as well. 1 OC = no fear.

river is a bit nasty. if you check here villain behind may bet. in any event you're probably bet. they drew incorrectly and got lucky. variance.

check/fold river cos if MP3 bets, he's probably on something. he's very passive. UTG will come along for the ride. puke if one of them shows A-high. but more likely one of them has a Q or K. i don't see what a call accomplishes here.

[seano34]

grunch:

Raise pf

Flop is fine, and now you have your passives left in.

Turn is fine.

RIver - I think UTG probably has Ax here as I would expect a donk from him given his stats and play on the turn or river. He isnt going to c/r this on the river .

I would bet as MP3 would bet the river holding a K if you check it through, but you might push him off a Qx hand and leave UTG to face calling you with his Ax and you could fold to an MP3 raise.

[seano34]

[ QUOTE ]
i don't see what a call accomplishes here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree - If you check and MP3 bets he is either bluffing with Ax or he hit the King. If he is bluffing you need to be good ~13% of the time to make it profitable. Given his LPP stats I dont think he is going to bluff this river more than 10% of the time

I think the bet is worth it to knock the scaredy cat off his Qx

[Set_Wenker]

So you guys say, raise 88 pf? I didn't raise because I want to encourage the other players to come in. Is this really a strategic mistake, or merely a matter of style like Marty said? What are the pros and what are the cons?

About the rest of the hand. Apparently opinions differ. I actually checked the hand and then a raising war started.

The rest of the hand:

UTG checks, Hero checks, MP3 bets, UTG raises, MP3 raises, UTG raises, MP3 calls.

UTG shows 77: Sevens full of two's
MP3 shows K2: two's full of Kings

I certainly didn't see that one coming :-)