PS .25/.50 BB

[Bruce D]

[ QUOTE ]
The first thing to do is to count your outs. Obviously you start from eight to your OESD and then you start discounting. In this hand there are three significant things that reduce your effective number of outs.

1) First we have to worry that with six opponents someone has a flush draw. We can calculate the odds of that. There are eleven outstanding diamonds. The odds of two of them being in one hand is 11/47*10/46 or 5%. The odds that nobody has a flush draw are .95^6 or 74%. I must admit I'm really surprised by that number and intuitively it feels like it should be more likely that someone has a flush draw. I suspect the fact that people are more likely to play suited cards makes the 74% estimate of safety somewhat higher than it should be. Nonetheless you can't count on a diamond ace or nine being good.
2) You have to worry about the possibility of full houses filling up by the end of the hand, making flushes and straights no good.
3) Lastly and perhaps most importantly with this many opponents there is a significant probability that more aces than usual are sitting in your opponent's hands and that means you may be drawing to only one or two aces. rather than the three non-diamond aces you're hoping for.

With all those factors working against you I feel like it's necessary to discount your outs to the range of four or five. Once you're down to four or five outs your equity derived via the rule of four is only in the 16-20% range, and I can't see enough equity advantage to make the flop 3-bet worthwhile. The flop donk may be okay but I don't think I do that, either. I just think there's better places to be doing your betting than this flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like that analyis with the prob of someone having a fd on the flop. I am not discrediting anything, but just as we discount outs for a draw, we have to discount some of the combinations of flush holdings that people have, for example J6, K4 etc. But in general I like the way you attacked the problem.

I was really surprised to see the stoved numbers. I remember way back when, I gave myself a blanket policy to not pump an oesd with a fd showing. It had been so long since I had an opportunity to pump an oesd I forgot what it was like. This shows me why I haven't done it in so long. It could be that I have moved to 6 max a couple months ago, but I gotta get this bonus done