$16 - Overpair on scary board

[Paranoia87]

Alright, this is what came up the other hand.

PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t30 (8 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

UTG (t2105)
UTG+1 (t1020)
MP1 (t3200)
Hero (t1455)
CO (t925)
Button (t2045)
SB (t1280)
BB (t1470)

Preflop: Hero is in MP2 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG calls t30, <font color="gray">UTG+1 folds</font>, MP1 calls t30, <font color="red">Hero raises to t150</font>, <font color="gray">CO folds</font>, Button calls t150, SB calls t135, <font color="gray">BB folds</font>, <font color="gray">UTG folds</font>, MP1 calls t120

Flop: (t660) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, MP1 checks, <font color="red">Hero bets t1305 (All-in)</font>, <font color="gray">Button folds</font>, <font color="gray">SB folds</font>, <font color="gray">MP1 folds</font>

It is obviously not a board for slow plays. The question is what to do with the hand on that board. I didn't want anybody to draw so I took drastic measures.

How frequently do I have to expect to be called here either by a draw or by a hand that already beats mine?

[sence25]

Hi, first for lingo-reasons: Obv you're holding an overpair, not overcards (which would be e.g. AK).

Now to the hand. Pf is perfectly standard and fine.
On the flop a push is certainly not an error, but by betting like 550 you encourage a sole club to push which gets you in as a solid fav.
Sometimes draws will also call if you openpush the flop, but I think there is more value in bet/call.
Obviously this line sucks if turn is a club, but oh well.

[mattiesmat]

I would bet pot on flop, so 600ish and prepare to get it in on the turn unless it's a club and someone shoves.

[Jaqrabbit]

The chance of flopping a flush is about 4%, I think (been a while since I've run the numbers, so this may not be quite right). So given you have three other players in, I think it's about a 12% chance that one of them flopped a flush, which means 1 time in 8, you're crushed and drawing only to the boat or quads. I wouldn't worry about a pair bigger than yours, and JJ/TT doesn't feel likely here since nobody else raised pf, and SB &amp; MP1 both checked ahead of you (with that flop, they'd have to bet a set), but any set probably does call here.

With a bet this size, you're offering 1.5:1 odds, which means any flush or straight draws aren't getting the odds to call. OESD/FD might call, but there aren't many of those (you've got two queens, so KQ,Q9 are not real likely, and I don't think 89o calls the raise pf).

The only other hand I'd worry about calling is TJs, for two pair, but even that might fold given the cruddy odds and the 3 clubs out there, and since there's only 3 ways for that to come up here, I think you're pretty safe.

So to summarize my rambling, I think you're already beat very infrequently, and you only get called rarely by draws.

I like sence's line here, since it gets some value from draws w/pair that don't make it. It also wins the pot right here a lot, while risking fewer of your chips than the shove (though you'd only fold here if the other three went nuts after your bet).

[eurythmech]

Wow Jaq, you can't really say much on the probability that someone has a flush without knowing how often they play suited cards in this situation.

[Jaqrabbit]

I'm saying it's the raw probability of someone having two suited cards, given we know there's three of that suit on the board. It's probably lower than what I stated, since they may or may not play all suited cards.

Also, as I said, I'm pulling that out of memory. I did the math a while back (after I flopped 2 pair and got busted by a flopped flush, of course. =p) and I could be a bit off on the numbers since I didn't recalculate it. If that's the case, my bad.

[Jaqrabbit]

Ok, I just did the math, and I was pretty close. If I goofed it up this time too, feel free to critique.

There are 10 clubs out there in 47 cards that we haven't seen. The probability that an individual player has two clubs is equal to the square of the probability that either of their hole cards is a club or (10/47 * 10/47) * 100% = 4.5%. Probability that one of the three players has two clubs in the hole is the sum of that probability for each individual player, or (4.5% + 4.5% + 4.5%) = 13.5%, or slightly more than 1 in 8. It's unlikely they're playing 24[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or 46[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], but like you said, we don't really know what they ARE playing here, so it's hard to say how much we can fudge our ods - I don't hate 1 in 10 but it's total speculation.

[MikeMcQ1]

I don't think the shove is all that bad based on the stack sizes and current pot size. IOW, any bet you make now, will leave you with practically nothing (relatively) on the turn. Getting the draws to fold here isn't such a bad thing and you will get called quite often anyway.

With that said, I'd make it 500ish and go from there most of the time, but open shove as well.

[Shrooma]

I agree with Mike here. Getting it in is punishing draws the most and saves you a difficult decision on the turn if called. Basically, you don't even want to be called by one club (even though slightly ahead) in this stage of the tournament.

[eurythmech]

I'm gonna go out on a limb here and assume you can't play poker.