TPTK + NFD = Problems

[calimero]

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It really seems like a lot of the time people will say "lead the turn" even when the pot is completely massive and multiway, like you can just lead here and fold. I think that is just ridic. The first thing I look at is:

how much we have left behind: about $40.

Then, the size of the pot on the turn: $22.50

The size of a reasonable lead here would be $15 - $18, which would leave us with $25 behind with the pot at around $40, before anyone else put any money in. In other words, TOTALLY COMMITTED.

So the question is not whether you want to lead the turn, because lead-folding would be just the most ridiculous thing ever. The question is if you want to stack off or not. If you do, b3bai. If you dont, check fold.

To my mind, we have 9 outs on this turn so its a pretty easy fold for me. We have one pair and are certainly behind, IMO we are never ahead here. If villain has 2pr, which I seriously doubt, we have 14 outs, making us a 2.3:1 dog. We are getting like 1.8:1 here so its a pretty easy fold, but I'm more concerned about the people who want to lead then fold - I assume that if you are leading then you're calling AI, yeah?

That poses another problem, of the hands that he will raise on this turn, what are we ahead of? AQ?

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great statement