ask Dcifrths...well, anything...about finance/mkts/ports that is.

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
I havent looked thru this post to see if this question was asked... I am looking to self-educate me, myself, and I. I am intesrested in the markets, and economies, but dont feel like spending the money on school. I am 30 years old and make deceny money. My goal is to be able to invest my own money myself thru an online broker. Any ideas?

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well yea...i mean, for one thing, you should learn the basics of expected returns to varying investments.

without a deep understanding though, your best bet is to use some sort of advisor. jively has posted very good basic starting points for portfolios.

but, as you said, you want to manage your investments yourself through a brokerage account.

in that case, you will need ot read. one book you should look at is David Swensen's "Unconventional Success: a fundamental approach to personal investment"

he is yale's endowment manager.

starting there you can get a sense of how your portfolio should look.

lemme know if i can do anything else or answer another question.

Barron

[Voy Por Ustedes]

i'm going for a job interview as an entry level/graduate equity researcher. can you give me an idea of skills that are valuable in this kind of role and suggest some ways I can prepare myself?

really enjoyed reading the thread, your posts are invariably educational to me.

thanks.

[DcifrThs]

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i'm going for a job interview as an entry level/graduate equity researcher. can you give me an idea of skills that are valuable in this kind of role and suggest some ways I can prepare myself?

[/ QUOTE ]

interviews imo all come down to a few aspects:

1) your background / perceived fit for the role that you'll do in the job (i.e. from them looking at your resume)

2) how you "spin" your background and talk through your resume "walk me through your resume" or "why are you here?"

3) how you come accross to the interviewer. this one is majorly important. would the interviewer want to work with you day in day out? does he/she get along w/ you. here you need to come accross relaxed, easy going, confident w/o being cocky and genuinely interested in the job and the interviewer(s).

4) technical aspects. depending on the job, these can be huge. i'm currently interviewing and have been told a few times that "you're a very sharp kid, and i'd hire you if you could XYZ." for me XYZ has been a) program in C++/Java, and b) hit the ground running performing perfect DCF models (which i can't since i haven't done it in 1.5yrs)

so if you work on the aspects above that you CAN work on, you'll be prepared to do as best as you can do.

i'm no equity researcher but, for equity research, i'd guess you better know how to read financial statements.

for instance: is a petro-chemical company a fixed or variable cost business? why?

if $50m worth of oil (input) is destroyed randomly, how would this event play through the balance sheet, income statement, cash flow, SHE statements? would this be an accounting source or use of cash in this period?

those types of questions i'd think are standard type ones.

maybe more vs. less complex ones (tax deferrals, write downs on various things etc. vs. "walk me through how the IS/BS/CF/SHE statements relate to each other")

that's just a guess though and you shuold talk w/ as many friends as you can in the industry to get a sense for what exactly they expect you to know (better if you can talk to somebody in the company to which you're applying)

hope that helps.

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really enjoyed reading the thread, your posts are invariably educational to me.

thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]

thanks for your kind words and you're welcome.

Barron

[HP]

hey easy question here

do money futures exist? I searched and couldn't find if they do or not.

If they do, what fundamentals could you discern about two countries given a discrepancy in the price of money futures and the current rate of exchange?

Also, a totally different question:

Would it be economically disastrous if the population in every country slowly began to remain stable?

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
hey easy question here

do money futures exist? I searched and couldn't find if they do or not.

[/ QUOTE ]

could you rephrase what you mean? do you mean a futures contract that bets on the rate of change in the money supply?

or do you mean money rates (like depository rates)?

let me know as i don't think any money supply futures exist but know you can bet on eurodollars fairly readily.

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If they do, what fundamentals could you discern about two countries given a discrepancy in the price of money futures and the current rate of exchange?

[/ QUOTE ]

well if you mean money supply futures i'm actually not sure. money supply increases in a developing country w/o a stable financial system could be disasterous whereas the same rate of increase in a country like the US wouldn't be so bad. don't quote me on this part of it though since i haven't really thought it through. the relationship between money and the economy is complex and depends on the institutions and policies set up in each individual country. thats the best i can do for now.

[ QUOTE ]


Also, a totally different question:

Would it be economically disastrous if the population in every country slowly began to remain stable?

[/ QUOTE ]

well over a long run, it would be problematic since it would limit the overall growth rate below what it could be if the population were growing.

a shrinking population is very bad long term and many european countries are facing that now. especially pension heavy ones.

it also really depends on the transfer of wealth in teh country from the working to the retired.

lemme know if i can clarify or if i've made an error.

hope this helps,
Barron

[HP]

[ QUOTE ]
could you rephrase what you mean? do you mean a futures contract that bets on the rate of change in the money supply?

[/ QUOTE ]
yeah this is what I mean, obviously I don't really know what I'm talking about, so I appreciate the time you are taking to answer my questions.

An example would be I will buy one EUR from you in 6 months for 1.4 USD (1.466 USD from XE at the moment)

But I am realizing just now this makes no sense. If this supposed futures market was trading at the above example, then I'd simply buy 1 EUR for 1.4 USD, and short 1 EUR against the USD, and make a risk free .066 USD

So this is why only perishable stuff has futures markets? If this is so, why are oil futures traded? If say futures are trading for much higher than they are now, why can't you just buy some oil now, store it (doable?), and take the sell-side of the futures contract (or however you say it)?

[ QUOTE ]
well over a long run, it would be problematic since it would limit the overall growth rate below what it could be if the population were growing.

a shrinking population is very bad long term and many european countries are facing that now. especially pension heavy ones.

it also really depends on the transfer of wealth in teh country from the working to the retired.

lemme know if i can clarify or if i've made an error.

[/ QUOTE ]
Righto, so do you think it's wise countries should at least be thinking about how to plan for this when it happens? Are they already? Or is everyone hoping we are going to colonize other planets?

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
could you rephrase what you mean? do you mean a futures contract that bets on the rate of change in the money supply?

[/ QUOTE ]
yeah this is what I mean, obviously I don't really know what I'm talking about, so I appreciate the time you are taking to answer my questions.

An example would be I will buy one EUR from you in 6 months for 1.4 USD (1.466 USD from XE at the moment)

But I am realizing just now this makes no sense. If this supposed futures market was trading at the above example, then I'd simply buy 1 EUR for 1.4 USD, and short 1 EUR against the USD, and make a risk free .066 USD

So this is why only perishable stuff has futures markets? If this is so, why are oil futures traded? If say futures are trading for much higher than they are now, why can't you just buy some oil now, store it (doable?), and take the sell-side of the futures contract (or however you say it)?

[/ QUOTE ]

well you're discovering futures contracts for the first time.

futures are the oldest derivatives that date back possibly millenia but definitely many many centuries. it is simply a contract 2 parties enter into to sell/buy something at some agreed upon time in the future.

exchange traded futures are standardized (in both notional value...i.e. 1 contract = $X / whatever) which makes liquidity more abundant and makes it easier to trade. further, futures contracts are "marked to market" every day so the margin that you post increases or decreases in value daily.

forward contracts are over the counter futures contracts that are not standardized and not marked to market.

basically, there are tons of things that are traded. fed funds futures, presidential futures and perishability isn't at all a qualification.

in terms of your oil contract question, that is called arbitrage. futures contracts are either in contango (futures price is higher than spot price) or backwardation (futures price is lower than spot price). sometimes, backwardation is caused by an inability to borrow/store the commodity.

in the oil example, you can do this and that is the force that ties the spot and futures price together.

the borrowing costs, interest rate, storage costs etc. are all factors that determine the futures price in relation to the spot price.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
well over a long run, it would be problematic since it would limit the overall growth rate below what it could be if the population were growing.

a shrinking population is very bad long term and many european countries are facing that now. especially pension heavy ones.

it also really depends on the transfer of wealth in teh country from the working to the retired.

lemme know if i can clarify or if i've made an error.

[/ QUOTE ]
Righto, so do you think it's wise countries should at least be thinking about how to plan for this when it happens?

[/ QUOTE ]

population shrinkage is definitely a problem in europe and there are some policies here and there that i've read about to deal with it. so yea i think politicians realize the problem and try to fix it.

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Are they already? Or is everyone hoping we are going to colonize other planets?

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huh? why colonize other planets when we can barely operate w/ this one lol.

Barron

[HP]

thanks, this thread is excellent

[fanmail]

Gold is getting crushed today. Would you guys buy gold here around 790 or wait and see?

[galmost]

Thanks for this interesting thread.

1) What are the most important valuation metrics that you use when determining buying a value stock on say the NYSE?

2) Same question as #1 but a high risk high return stock?

Could you share your thought proccesses on how you buy stock? What information you use? What do you look for, etc, etc?

What does your sn mean?