100nl FH in limped pot

[Hattifnatt]

easy turn raise, river is close but his low aggr factor makes me leaning towards calling. I think pushing and calling are close in EV and calling is holding down the variance a bit.

[Nielsio]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I disagree. I totally see a 40%vpip playing 45 like this. Why would he not?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because, in practise, they don't. River 3-bets are enormously strong.

[/ QUOTE ]


A straight is pretty strong.

[Nick Royale]

I raise the turn. Shove river, it should be pretty obvious looking at jamo's stove.

[sightless]

Im just calling this river 3bet.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I disagree. I totally see a 40%vpip playing 45 like this. Why would he not?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because, in practise, they don't. River 3-bets are enormously strong.

edit: especially with 0.5 AF

[/ QUOTE ]
In this case where it's limped preflop, checked around on the flop and a small bet gets called on the turn it isn't THAT strong. I've seen players like this going broke on the river with trips with a decent kicker often. Unless we suspect him to call our raise with 33/22 a substantial ammount a river push is really easy. The fact that your stove only includs 4 combos that beats us means that a small chances he plays the 16 combos of 54 or bazillion combos of 6x makes a huge impact on our decision.

[Missile Crisis]

I'm going broke on this river for sure vs a 44/2. Such a player can easily stack off with random trips or a straight here. Raise the turn also.