Play a Hand With the Masters Results and Panel Comments

[D_O_H]

For what it's worth, I really enjoyed this discussion and the way it was presented.

Next!

[Lloyd]

Better his thoughts are posted now then never. So, let's just move past this and get back to the hand. I wish we didn't stray so far from the purpose of this thread. There is still discussion that would be valuable.

I posted this question in the River thread but only a few really answered it. Based on how we have played the hand through the turn, what possible hands could we have from our opponents point of view? To me, that is much more important than what hands we put him on as unless we think he's got the nuts it all comes down to whether or not he things we've got a big hand.

[fnurt]

I think Jason would be a good candidate for the next panel, assuming he hasn't made a million bucks and retired by then.

[Exitonly]

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I think Jason would be a good candidate for the next panel, assuming he hasn't made a million bucks and retired by then.

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yea he was one of the ones i had guessed would be on it.

[adanthar]

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raising the turn given the flop check is actually very very likely to result in the perception of 'oh, it's a bluff'.

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It could as easily be 'oh, it's a set'


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Or "Oh, it's a straight."

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I posted this question in the River thread but only a few really answered it. Based on how we have played the hand through the turn, what possible hands could we have from our opponents point of view?

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A good player, which you seem like to him, will check behind on that flop/essentially tiny milk-raise that board with a set approximately 0% of the time. Nor is that 2 pair, because the first pair of that 2 pair bets the flop, too.

So we're repping a range of exactly AQ, KJ and maybe T9. The other thing we can reasonably be put on with that raise is a bluff/semibluff draw, and in fact that would be my first guess as to what you had. Bluffs are therefore a gigantic part of your range on the river.

[Iconoclastic]

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Better his thoughts are posted now then never. So, let's just move past this and get back to the hand. I wish we didn't stray so far from the purpose of this thread. There is still discussion that would be valuable.

I posted this question in the River thread but only a few really answered it. Based on how we have played the hand through the turn, what possible hands could we have from our opponents point of view? To me, that is much more important than what hands we put him on as unless we think he's got the nuts it all comes down to whether or not he things we've got a big hand.

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Frankly, I did not think putting ourselves on a range from Villain's POV was necessary because even if Villain is Tight (which turned out to be horribly mistaken anyway) doesn't mean he's smart enough to play utilizing hand ranges. But even a cursory estimate would put us on missing the board more than hitting the board as our raising range is pretty wide so in that aspect our FE is pretty low (in addition to the other reasons I gave for Checking in my River post)

[Jason Strasser (strassa2)]

orda extremely watested

[bruce]

I've read all the posts already so I'll refrain from my comments about how I would play the river.

What I find most interesting is that CO was presented as a tight opponenet. As it turns out he was one step above a clueless idiot. So reptrospectively it's fair to say
against this type of player raising with AJs is a no brainer. Also had we bet the flop and had he called we would have been done with the hand and we wouldn't have attempted a futile bluff.

Poker is a game of imprecise information and after a few hours of play labeling an opponent can be very costly.

Now if I only followed what I preached, my, I would have lots more cash in the bank.

By the way Lloyd, great thread, regardless of how you format it. I found it to be very informative and entertaining.

Bruce

[Sirckus]

I really enjoyed this whole exercise.
I had a blank piece of paper before this started and now it's full of scribbles and mini equations and scratch outs and swear words! Fantastic!

I feel like my poker IQ increased by 15 points!

I was really sucked into all of the street by street discussion, but at the end result I felt like many of the "pleebs" had put more thought and participation into the previous streets and the results thread was a (relative) let down.

The following is just one n00b's opinion...
Maybe the slant could "Play along in a hand played by the Masters"?
The format could be that the "Masters" are all sitting at a virtual table and in their virtual seats and they play the hands out with Lloyd dealing from a pre-determined deck (the deck being "pre-determined" however you'd like or for a submitted hand)
This way each master has a unique view and is somewhat in control of their portion of the hand. Then "The Hand" consists of all the Masters plays on all the streets. That way get the POV of the hero and the villan and "pot enhancers".

Of course, that could be waaaay too much work. And in the end, this exercise was still awesome. The cheapest $10K lesson I could have hoped to buy. Thanks!

[Vorlin]

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All this talk about betting 5k vs 7k on the river is just pointless IMO.

He calls 5k he calls 7k.

-Jason

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The difference is tremendous, but it has nothing to do with the 2000 chips.

If your opponent says: "I'll be a lot but I'm keeping a little here in case I'm beat"; then you know you might have a shot. Since it won't cripple you to try, and the pot is a nice one, you should be inclined to call.

If your opponent says: "I'll bet you my tournament survival that I've got you beat, so here's every last chip I have. Now just throw your money in the middle so I can take it"; you're not going to be very happy about taking a chance of doubling him up when all you have is second pair.

By holding back that 2000, the CO saw that Soss had a contingency plan. Someone who needs a contingency plan is afraid that they might need it. Now, we all know that Soss needed a contingency plan badly! But, you can't let your opponent know that.

5000 vs 7000 isn't a consideration... keeping some for backup vs confidently putting every last chip in the center is.

The kid still might have called... but, considering how hard he had to think before calling that 5k, I can't help but believe that the psycological impact of seeing Soss put every single chip on the line would have induced a fold here.

But that's what we're discussing... what we think. No one will ever know for sure how things would have happened if they'd been done any differently and all anyone can do is speculate.

I know that my posts are rather late after this hand was started but I'd be really interested in seeing comments on my thinking on the flop and turn. I took a rather unusual angle when considering what to do and am wondering about the pros and cons of those angles.

Vorlin