Pot/Implied Odds in 1/2 NL

[JABoyd]

1/2 NL ring game in a casino. You're on the button. One limper middle position.

You: A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

You raise to $8. Both blinds fold. Limper calls.

FLOP: A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

You figure you have the best hand and think your opponent may have an A so you over bet the pot ($25 into $19).

You're opponent has 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Now the intial question: How many players in a 1/2 NL game take pot/implied odds into account?

Obvioulsy the implied odds are good for your opponent. He very well could put you on an A since you raised preflop. He therefore should assume that any 2 would give him the best hand. He could assume that if a 2 hit you would think it would not have helped him UNLESS he called a 4x preflop raise with 44 (or A4 suited maybe?).

With that all said, how many players in a 1/2 NL ring game actually think like that? And if they do, how many would actually know they still aren't getting the right odds to call to hit a 4 outter (6 outs if they think that a 4 will give them the best hand). Its my general thought that maybe 2-3 plyers in an average 1/2 NL ring game think like that. And the other 8-10 players just think 'OHHHH...I have a straight draw...CALL!!'

NOTE: Please ignore how you think the hand should have been played (i.e. over betting the pot, etc.). Please only consider the question in its most general form. Thanks!

[mce86]

your missing one important element .....chip stacks.
your ? is pretty basic.....most think of what the board shows and what they have. good players always ask themselves, will he stack off if i hit my out. so, if you bet 25 dollays, biyt only have 200, i cant call you. but, if you bet 25 dollars, and we have 1000 dollars, and you will put all your chips in, now i can make thecall. most dont think this way.

[JABoyd]

Exactly my point...now what number (out of 10 at a ring game) in your opinion DO think that way?

[RustyBrooks]

Yeah, pretty clearly OP is not asking "what are implied odds" or "where does the concept of implied odds apply" etc etc. He's asking, at the average 1/2 NL table, how many players understand and apply the concept?

If you answer more than 3-4, I think you need to work on your table selection. In live games the answer better be 1-2.

[SDone]

Last I went to play 1/3 a few people were chasing their gutshots, runner runner flushes and runner runner straights for huge bets, and calling huge (pot size or near it) bets the whole way.
God bless these people.

[GeeBeeQED]

JA, First, lets clairify for all readers the effective chip stacks. If you have 600 and the villian has 200 then the effective stacks are 200. 200 is all you can win.

Implied odds vary greatly depending on what kind of player your facing and the kind of hand his actions might indicate.

For example, the donk that's playing too many hands and calling too often from behind is making a mistake. I want him to make that mistake against me before he makes it against one of the other opponents. I will tend to involve myself in this players pots. If his stack is short, lets say $80 and he's making it 20 to go preflop I'm only getting 4:1 implied. I need decent holdings to get involved with him here. Also important is what kind and which other players I'm likely to face in this pot. 4:1 implied is not enough to get involved with weaker hands if he's already been called by the tightest rock at the table.

Different scenario, lets say the villian who plays bad has been sucking out for the last hour and has $800 in front of him. He makes it $20 to go (I have 600), I might call him with hands weak as 6-8. I have much more to win as a multiple of what I'm calling and he's likely to make a big mistake. These are all good things and they weaken my calling hands and get me involved with him more. Most of the time with this kind of joker, I'm looking to win more than 20 times what I'm calling preflop before I consider getting involved with suited connectors, one gapers, small pairs and the like. Note, I'm just talking about a pure ATMs here.

Opposite story, the best player on the table isn't likely to go broke with his aces or AK after the flop when all he has is one pair. If I call a raise that represents 10% of the effective chip stack preflop now I'm making a big mistake. The Implied odds are much worse with this player. I need to consider the value of my hand primarily before deciding to get involved here.

The implied odds varies with each player his style and his actions as well as your table image and the villians past actions. If the donk's been raising every pot you might go to war with A-T but if he rarely raises and comes in for a raise this time you would probably muck this hand.

I know my answer seems a little disjointed, It's late, I'm tired and what you ask takes a chaper in a book to give a good complete answer. It's very complex.

Dave

[JABoyd]

That just loops right back to my question! So now that makes the EXPANDED question:

'How many players in a 1/2 NL game take pot/implied odds, chip stack, image, position, all that bs that good players like you and I DO take into account, into account?'

My theory is that most players don't. I feel that an average of 3-4 players in a 1/2 NL ring game in a casino take all that into account.

People are reading too far into this question. It is a very simple question which requires a very simple answer. The answer, in fact, should be a number betwen 1 and 10 or a range of numbers, for example 2-4.

[RustyBrooks]

Yeah. I need to make a thread "How many people in the average poker theory forum have good reading comprehension skills"

[GeeBeeQED]

JA,

It varies from game to game. However It's rare that I'm sitting with more than 4 players (me included) and it's usually 3 that are showing clear signs they are considering implied odds. That does not mean there are not more thinking about it at some level, just all I seem to ever see that are very clear this is in thier play book at a high level. I have alot of time at 1-2 over the years, moved to a different game where I play 1-3 almost exclusively with the occasional 2-5 play. I don't really see any difference going from game to game to game other than the 2-5 players are much more agressive usually. however that's countered by the fact they are more responsive to the occasional bluff.

At tables such as we are talking about there is a whole sublayer of strategy going on. There are often 2 or 3 or 4 players who are careful about getting involved with each other. Each one has decided there are softer spots to earn a win for the night than the other good player they've identified. However, when the ATM has called early (or given a calling tell) now each is making his decision primarily in relation to the expected range of the ATMs hands and the implied odds of letting him call off his entire stack (or large portion) when you've got him beat. There is the minor worry of the other good players being in the pot, however, often it is the first of these players that bets that causes the others to fold leaving one headup with the ATM. You see they don't want to be involved with one of the other few better players. They called to get involved with the ATM. They miss and the KNOW one of the other few players were talking about is not stupid enough to bluff at the ATM. So this hand plays out totally differently when the ATM is involved.

I am not saying that none of the better players will have a strong hand calling preflop in this situation just that thier standards for getting involved are much lower. You still have to worry about the best/better players in the pot but understand they often will have a different reason for being in the pot this flop.

This brings up another interesting subject for another thread and that is respecting why you entered the pot to begin with and keeping on that track most of the time after you've entered a pot.

We've all sat at a table where the ATM builds and builds chips. One of the reasons is he gets so much loose action preflop. If he's hitting tonight it's going to be a good night for him. I've often spent time thinking of ways get some of these benefits without all the drawbacks. But in the end playing like an ATM just sends you to the money machine for more.

Some have said the ATM will win once in a while and this is what makes him come back. But in my experiance he wins a big stack more like 1/2 the games he plays. His problem is however (lacking any understanding or introspection) that he seldom leaves the table when he's doubled or trippled up. He hangs around to continue pummelling all these losers or just because he's have fun for a change. In the end however, he usually goes home busted. Still he remembers the last session where he was up, so he thinks he knows how to play and this fuels the energy for the next casino venture............

[MarvinMartian]

[ QUOTE ]
My question isn't about that SPECIFIC example. The example is used to illustrate the question in the original posting about pot odds. I'll post a 'better example' for those of you who seemed confused about the question in the original posting.

[/ QUOTE ]

You said it doesn't matter about the specific example but now you are posting a "better example" to unconfuse everyone. Im confused.