TPTK on scary board - calldown?

[xerber]

Hi

This was one of the first hands at this table so no reads.

Party Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $0.15/$0.3
10 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is UTG+1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>, 2 folds, MP2 calls, 3 folds, SB calls, BB folds.

Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (7SB, 3 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, MP2 calls, SB calls.

Turn: 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5BB, 3 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">MP2 raises</font>, SB folds, Hero calls.

River: 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (9BB, 2 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">MP2 bets</font>, Hero calls.

Results:
Final pot: 11BB

I´m wondering if this calldown is often enough good?

[marchron]

Good against an unknown to acquire the read. Next time, use that read.

[jstill]

its probably pretty close truthfully without doing the math.

if u make his range KJ AQ AT A7 77 TT maybe AJ with the Js or AK with the Ks, then some range of flushes he cold calls 98 J9 JT KT ect, u probably have too much equity against his range to fold the turn and once u get to the river the calls probably slightly minus ev, but dont sweat it too much getting 10:1.

One thing ive been struggling with to reconcile is how our negative implied odds on the river should influence our decision on the turn. The ev of the whole line is tainted by this. As an example if a turn call was slightly ev against an opponents range, it seems we should call but with incomplete information if 90% of the time we are paying off as a loser on the river, the negative EV associated with the next street could easily out weight the EV of the turn call. This stuff is hard to figure out tho.

as a more general simplistic rule, dont bother trying to find folds with TPTK particularly in the micros. U often have too many outs and counterfeit outs against his two pair hands to fold on the turn (which will always be alot of their range) and once u get to the river whatever, its a small mistake if even (probably not against unknowns).

[KitCloudkicker]

[ QUOTE ]
Good against an unknown to acquire the read. Next time, use that read.

[/ QUOTE ]

FWIW it takes more than one calldown to acquire a reliable read.

[KingOtter]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Good against an unknown to acquire the read. Next time, use that read.

[/ QUOTE ]

FWIW it takes more than one calldown to acquire a reliable read.

[/ QUOTE ]

The quality of the read depends entirely on what he's holding.

[xerber]

Thanks for the answers.

[ QUOTE ]
One thing ive been struggling with to reconcile is how our negative implied odds on the river should influence our decision on the turn. The ev of the whole line is tainted by this. As an example if a turn call was slightly ev against an opponents range, it seems we should call but with incomplete information if 90% of the time we are paying off as a loser on the river, the negative EV associated with the next street could easily out weight the EV of the turn call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, thats what i´m thinking about.On the River we will pay off a winner-hand and a losing-hand will check behind.

[Gap23Razor]

the turn is a game theroy situation for you--is the villain bluffing or does he have a flush or 2 pair?...let's assume you can only beat a bluff...so on the turn the pot has 10sb in it and you must bet 2 here to call...villain may continue to bluff on the river, so the implied odds on the turn is 12 sb in pot you must put in 4 sb's to call...thus, you would have to catch him bluffing 1 out of 4 times to break even...now if one of you guys with a GED would work out the math for our calling frequency, this 2 digit IQ (me) will be happy...

[bung]

[ QUOTE ]
Hi

This was one of the first hands at this table so no reads.

Party Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $0.15/$0.3
10 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is UTG+1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>, 2 folds, MP2 calls, 3 folds, SB calls, BB folds.

Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (7SB, 3 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, MP2 calls, SB calls.

Turn: 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5BB, 3 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">MP2 raises</font>, SB folds, Hero calls.

River: 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (9BB, 2 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">MP2 bets</font>, Hero calls.

Results:
Final pot: 11BB

I´m wondering if this calldown is often enough good?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think even against an unknown this is a fold in a small pot. You only beat AJ. Also, a bluff is unlikely here on an A high board, against 2 players...

[CrMenace]

GURNCH

You'll pay 9:2 to see showdown; Is there a 1 in 4.25 that villain has an A and thinks he has the pf raiser beat, or is playing a scarecard? IMO, no. Until you have a better read, I think you are toast.

Edited to add: If you do fold, you should call another situation soon to mix it up and not be too predictable.

[Gap23Razor]

all right, i'll try to give the game theory answer (and as you noticed, i even looked up the spelling of theory)

game theory is used only when you have no judgement re: your opponent's action--that is you have no read and so you adopt a policy of randomizing your decisions to keep you opponent from winning excess amounts from you by bluffing based on his read of you--that is, you become random to avoid any tendencies that give him more of an advantage over you than long run frequency that he has a better hand than you in this instance...

when the villain is raising on the turn, he is betting 2 small bets (1 big bet) to bluff at winning 12 small bets, or if the action goes to the river, 4 small bets to win 14...odds of about 3.5 to 1, that is villain can lose 3.5 times on his bluff for every one he wins to break even...

to defend against the bluff at the optimal game theory amount, we need to call down 3.5 times for every 1 time we fold, or fold as frequently as the pot odds offered to the villain...if you call down more that 3.5 times for every fold, the villain will stop bluffing and win more against you long run than if you adopt this strategy...conversely, if you fold more than 1 time for each 3.5 call downs, the villain will make more money off you by bluffing

the problem at the table, or on-line is to randomize you folding decision...online you could have open you excel spreadsheet and hit you calc button for a randomized function to tell you to call or fold...at the table you would need to look at your wristwatch sweep second hand, or some other method to decide.

okay, anybody care to weigh in with a critique? (you thoughts are welcome)