NL2 - AJs in CO turn 2 pair on 3 flush board

[You're No Daisy]

Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $.02 BB (6 handed) Ultimate Bet Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB ($2.50)
BB ($1.98)
UTG ($.81)
MP ($1.06)
Hero ($3.45)
Button ($2.13)

Villain is 57/2.4/3 and doesn't like to fold to a preflop raise.

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls $0.02, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $0.09</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP calls $0.07.

Flop: ($0.21) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $0.15</font>, MP calls $0.15.

Turn: ($0.51) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP checks, Hero???

Is it weak to not bet here, or is checking behind to control the pot the correct line? I don't want to bet 1/2 or 2/3 the pot only to get raised, but is this a necessary evil sometimes.

AC

[vixticator]

Bet again, good chance he called flop with an Ace. Also if he just now picked up a flush draw you get value here. If he shoves over bet, meh, I call.

[You're No Daisy]

Will half the pot or about $.27 do the trick?

[Hebel]

seems like a pretty clear bet/fold to a raise imo. spades got there, k10 got there, sets/aq still have you beat.

[Pussy Galore]

[ QUOTE ]
Bet again, good chance he called flop with an Ace. Also if he just now picked up a flush draw you get value here. If he shoves over bet, meh, I call.

[/ QUOTE ]

half the pot imo

[Shattered]

Villain's a 57/2.4/3 and you're thinking of checking for pot control? Bleeeh. I pot, maybe even overbet turn and get it all in ASAP. You have a very strong, vulnerable hand and villain's an aggrotard that never folds postflop. If there is any time you need to bet to protect your hand it's now.

[KRE8R]

It's NL2 and the villain started with $1.06. I pot this turn and call a shove.

[You're No Daisy]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain's a 57/2.4/3 and you're thinking of checking for pot control? Bleeeh. I pot, maybe even overbet turn and get it all in ASAP. You have a very strong, vulnerable hand and villain's an aggrotard that never folds postflop. If there is any time you need to bet to protect your hand it's now.

[/ QUOTE ]
I guess I need some help here figuring out AF numbers. I obviously know anything over 2.5 is very aggressive, but how do I know based upon AF numbers that villain isn't folding? Is there a baseline (in general) that we can go by?

AC

[NL Newbie]

Bet, if raised i dunno how i can be ahead.

KT got there, FD got there, AQ has us anyway, Sets possible but unlikly.


You look at AF and consider its value along with other stats. So high a VPIP and high PFR show the guy is betting/raising ALOT, and since he has a high vpip he cant have a great hand everytime...can he [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]?

A low VPIP and high AF is [retty common, they have good hands so go ape [censored]. A high AF is also indicative of a "BET/FOLD" or "BET/SHOVE" type player. He decides quickly that he wants to get all in and comes back over you, or folds keeping his AF high.

Calling reduces the AF.

Other stats such as PFR/CBET flop/Cbet turn/Raise Cbets all help indicate just how and where he's aggression stems from.