+EV Craps through Comp Points?

[mmcd]

I was thinking about craps and casino comp points, and I think I have come up with a decent +EV scheme. 2 players each bet fairly heavily (and equally) on the pass and don't pass lines, and one of them also bets a smaller amount on 12. It seems that the variance here will be fairly low, allowing the 2 players to make very large bets and only suffer a small loss (~$0.58/roll for every hundred dollars bet by each on the pass/don't pass lines).

So if me and a friend were to bet $1000 each on pass/don't pass and $34 on 12, It seems the amount we'd gain in comp points would far exceed any loss at the table. If these points could be converted to cash (even at a steep discount) it looks like this system would produce free money with very little risk.

Am I missing something here?

[SheetWise]

You would have very little variance without the bet on 12 -- with the bet on 12 you would have virtually no variance. Without the 12 and $100 front and back you're going to lose $100 1 out of 36 rolls -- $2.78 per -- how do you get .58? With a bet on 12 you will lose more.

If you're looking for a rating, I would only play at busy tables and play an amount similar to the other players. If you're the only two players at the table playing 1,000s it will be obvious. I assume you'd buy and lay full odds as well.

[Wake up CALL]

One thing you may be missing is that table comps cannot be turned into cash like slot points can (with very very rare exceptions such as travel reimbursement or being a whale with a % of your losses returned).

[Terry]

Your career will be very short. Some casinos might comp you once.

In my years as a dice pit boss I never comped any of the Do and Don't teams, not even the first time, not even a buffet ... nor did any of the bosses with whom I ever worked.

[SheetWise]

[ QUOTE ]
Your career will be very short. Some casinos might comp you once.

In my years as a dice pit boss I never comped any of the Do and Don't teams, not even the first time, not even a buffet ... nor did any of the bosses with whom I ever worked.

[/ QUOTE ]
That's a common attitude -- and the only reason OP shouldn't be too obvious. Personally, I always advised treating them the same as any other player. It's the casino that benefits from the reduced variance -- not the player.

[SamIAm]

[ QUOTE ]
Your career will be very short. Some casinos might comp you once.

In my years as a dice pit boss I never comped any of the Do and Don't teams, not even the first time, not even a buffet ... nor did any of the bosses with whom I ever worked.

[/ QUOTE ]As Sheetwise said, why does the house care whether they're a Do & Don't team or a Do & Do team? The expected value is the same.

So the player is minimizing their variance; what do you care? Comp them 1/3 their expected loss regardless.
-Sam

P.S. Similarly, you shouldn't be fooled by full odds vs no odds.

[mmcd]

[ QUOTE ]
One thing you may be missing is that table comps cannot be turned into cash like slot points can (with very very rare exceptions such as travel reimbursement or being a whale with a % of your losses returned).

[/ QUOTE ]

Comp points can be bought and sold among players at some casinos. I doubt casinos endorse this sort of thing as policy, but it can and does happen.

[SheetWise]

[ QUOTE ]
P.S. Similarly, you shouldn't be fooled by full odds vs no odds.

[/ QUOTE ]
But -- as Terry noted, casino management frequently acts in ways that defy logic. In the case of two players front and back, full odds provide a no-risk illusion of action.

[Terry]

Comps are paid as a percentage of theoretical loss.

With the described team play, suppose each player generates action that provides a theoretical loss of $1000 and each is given $400 in comps ... so the team loses $2000 and gets back $800; not a +EV situation for the players. They have reduced their variance greatly, but their EV remains the same except for the little added negative of making the bet on 12.

So why don't the casinos want such action even though it guarantees the players will never win and will always lose their theoretical? It's obviously not a “policy” thing. It's personal. The people working the game don't like it when players treat them as if they are idiots who can't see through the team's little scheme.

The bosses look at them as mooches, which, of course, they are. The team will never take a big loss, steam a little, and take an even bigger loss, allowing the casino's advantage of the bigger bankroll to come into play. The dealers know they aren't going to get any significant tokes from these guys and would rather have room for two players who might be more live.

When you act in a way that causes people to dislike you and/or in a way that reduces their income, you shouldn't really expect those people to be likely to willingly provide you with discretionary extra goodies. Whether or not that defies (formal) logic, it certainly is the way the world works.

[SheetWise]

[ QUOTE ]
Comps are paid as a percentage of theoretical loss.


[/ QUOTE ]
You're correct -- and the theoretical loss is generally a guesstimate, as most players vary their wagers and take the occasional prop bet. In this hypothetical, there's little need for the pit to guess -- if you know how fast the dice are moving you can accurately predict their hourly loss to within a couple percent.

[ QUOTE ]
They have reduced their variance greatly, but their EV remains the same except for the little added negative of making the bet on 12.

[/ QUOTE ]
Little??? What are you proposing they bet on the 12? The loss the back player has on the 12 for the small reduction in variance will more than pay for his comps.

[ QUOTE ]
It's obviously not a “policy” thing. It's personal. The people working the game don't like it when players treat them as if they are idiots who can't see through the team's little scheme.

[/ QUOTE ]
If the casino doesn't want this action -- then the players are treating them correctly. They are idiots.

[ QUOTE ]
The bosses look at them as mooches, which, of course, they are.

[/ QUOTE ]
See previous statement. QED.

You should keep a list of these "mooches" who will take a guaranteed loss of $1000 for $400 in comps. I can sell their names for $500 apiece.

[ QUOTE ]
The team will never take a big loss, steam a little, and take an even bigger loss, allowing the casino's advantage of the bigger bankroll to come into play.

[/ QUOTE ]
See previous two statements. Is your mission to prove it?

[ QUOTE ]
The dealers know they aren't going to get any significant tokes from these guys and would rather have room for two players who might be more live.

[/ QUOTE ]
Any dealers worth their weight in salt would let them stay all day. Two free shills.

[ QUOTE ]
Whether or not that defies (formal) logic, it certainly is the way the world works.

[/ QUOTE ]
Thank God. Consultants need work too.