TPTK on the flop, c/c or c/r?

[Thomas Luice]

The villain is a standard aggressive player with about 22.9/17.34/2.15 over 1240 hands. c/c or c/r on the flop?

Prima Poker skin
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $1/$2
6 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">UTG raises</font>, 3 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero 3-bets</font>, BB folds, <font color="#cc0000">UTG caps</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (9SB, 2 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">UTG bets</font>, Hero..?

[rzk]

[ QUOTE ]
The villain is a standard aggressive player with about 22.9/17.34/2.15 over 1240 hands. c/c or c/r on the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

not enough information, need more significant digits for all stats.

[Oink]

Just count combos yo!

You need 67% eq to raise since you are gonna call a 3-bet. Assuming he will call with JJ:

You have about 90% eq against 6 combos of JJ and 12 AK
You have about 20% eq against 6 KK
You have about 0% against 1 QQ
You have about 10% against 3 AA

(18*0.9 + 6*0.2 + 3*0.1)/28 ~ 63%

call down

If you can add KQ to his range you can prolly raise.

[frenchpignouf]

There is TT in his range, it looks too close. Can we b/f a river blank against an instant raise ?

edit: he takes the free card with Ak on the turn quite often and AQ is in his range not a good idea probably.

[rzk]

actually,

90% -&gt; 77%
20% ok
0% -&gt; 2%
10% -&gt; 9%

63% -&gt; 54.784209185% (gotta be precise!)

[Oink]

[ QUOTE ]
actually,

90% -&gt; 77%
20% ok
0% -&gt; 2%
10% -&gt; 9%

63% -&gt; 54.784209185% (gotta be precise!)

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh yeah. AK has straight draw and JJ has bdsd.

BTW that range I quoted is the tightest range we should expect.

We need to add AQ which pulls our eq closer to 50% and lower pp's like TT, 99, 88.

KQs is a possibility as well not to mention the odd tilt cap by T8s.

[Thomas Luice]

[ QUOTE ]
Just count combos yo!

You need 67% eq to raise since you are gonna call a 3-bet. Assuming he will call with JJ:

You have about 90% eq against 6 combos of JJ and 12 AK
You have about 20% eq against 6 KK
You have about 0% against 1 QQ
You have about 10% against 3 AA

(18*0.9 + 6*0.2 + 3*0.1)/28 ~ 63%

call down

If you can add KQ to his range you can prolly raise.

[/ QUOTE ]
How did you arrive at 67%?

On the other hand, do I need 67% for any value raise?

BTW, I've checked all his HH and found he r/ced his AQo, so I assume his 4b range UTG is: AQ+,99+

[Oink]

How much you need depends on how villain will react to a raise.

So you are in a river spot where you beat villain 99 out of 100. I.e your eq is 99%. However if you raise villain will 3-bet his 1% where he is ahead of you and fold any hand that is loosing. So you will have to fold to a raise

EV of raising is -1*0.01 + 0*0.99 = -0.01

So even if your eq is huge you cant make a profitable raise if villain is never calling a worse hand.



Now back to this spot. If we assume that villain will call all worse hands and 3-bet all better hands then raising will win you 1 bet when ahead and loose you 2 bets when behind (given you call the 3-bet).

This means that you are raising to win 1 bet when ahead and 2 bets when behind. So for this to be good you need to be ahead 2 in 3 times or 67%.

However. This is such a simplified way to do things. If you want to do a precise EV analysis you need to make a range for villain, assume what he is gonna do with each hand given your action - not only on the flop but also on the turn and river and on every possible turn/river combo. Needless to say this is gonna be a huge calculation and by the tim eyou are done you could have won 100BB's just playing instead.


So the 67% I quoted is just a loose estimate of how much you need in lack of a better and more precise analysis

[Absolution]

I check call in these spots. This is WA/WB. You either have him reverse dominated or he's got you beat.

[Oink]

[ QUOTE ]
I check call in these spots. This is WA/WB. You either have him reverse dominated or he's got you beat.

[/ QUOTE ]

You need to c/r a guy like me or any other loosish guy with a wide preflop range