bet the river with AA?

[thepizzlefosho]

yeah he had the one hand that made since to value bet, J8. I figured it was a standard check behind just wanted to make sure.

thanks for the help folks.

[milesdyson]

people can easily c/f J8 here anyway.

[rzk]

even before i read that he had J8 i thought that's the only hand that makes sense. i would say he has J8 70%, some semibluffing hand that he's c/f'ing 25% and a hand that has you beat 5% of the time. i also think he may call with J8 at least 30% of the time, since he can decide you might have overplayed some pair+flush draw combo (Ad 8 comes to mind) and make a wtf c/c. or he may c/c just because, as apparently many players (even good ones) do. therefore i think it makes sense to bet.

i realize this is contrary to all the previous posts so i guess i must be wrong somehow. please flame me [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[milesdyson]

checkraising a boat or flush on that river is not a bad idea. pizzle's range is basically K9+/AA/maybe 88 when he calls the turn. the kings usually bet when checked to but never raise a lead bet. AA sometimes bets too but would also never raise a bet. so the chance he's getting tricky + the chance he makes the easiest c/f ever with J8 leads me to check behind.

[rzk]

i completely agree that c/r'ing a boat or flush is not a bad idea. but i think a 3-tabling "pretty good tag" is much more likely to just bet it on autopilot. i see the turn c/r river c/r line very very rarely, what about you? it's also possible that you can confidently fold if he does c/r so you'll lose only 1BB when behind.

[Absolution]

[ QUOTE ]
yeah he had the one hand that made since to value bet, J8. I figured it was a standard check behind just wanted to make sure.

thanks for the help folks.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? Looks like I would have won a bigger pot that you. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]
i completely agree that c/r'ing a boat or flush is not a bad idea. but i think a 3-tabling "pretty good tag" is much more likely to just bet it on autopilot. i see the turn c/r river c/r line very very rarely, what about you? it's also possible that you can confidently fold if he does c/r so you'll lose only 1BB when behind.

[/ QUOTE ]
i see it enough on cards like this that it matters. mainly a good tag is c/fing J8 here often so as long as he's c/ring even a tiny bit you might as well just save the bet.

[jstill]

I almost always bet when people ck the river no matter what they did before, but I wouldnt here

2 or 8 river I think I bet call, what do you guys think?

fwiw good tags dont ck call J8 here after this action vs tags cuz tags arent value betting or bluffing TT (if they are even the type of stupid tag to 3bet the flop with those) and there are no straight draws to have 3bet the flop with and the flush hit so you have no hands to bluff so he cant ck call to induce

so no absolution you wouldnt have won a bigger pot, the bet is -EV easily even if you can always bet fold correctly, u arent called by worse hands nearly enough AND im guessing youd often be tempted to bet call (do you claim to be bet folding here without thought? you think villain is tricky enough to cr 3 streets with a real hand but not cr the turn on a semi bluff/ bluff but never follow up with a cr bluff on the river?)