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#1
11-01-2007, 05:20 PM
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nl 50 set turn
hi
villains stats: 28/20/12 over 102 hands and his raise c-bet is 75% OnGame's Room No-Limit Hold'em, $0,5 BB (5 handed) by Hand Converter CG saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font> UTG ($63.45) Hero ($47.50) Button ($32.30) SB ($117.10) BB ($52.65) Preflop: Hero is MP with 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. UTG folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2</font>, Button folds, SB folds, BB calls $1.50. Flop: ($4.25) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> BB checks, Hero checks. Turn: ($4.25) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">BB bets $2</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $6</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $22</font>, Hero ?? 
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#2
11-01-2007, 05:25 PM
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Re: nl 50 set turn
Villain looks quite aggressive to me. I get it in here and expect to see two pair or even an overpair as well as sets and the straight.
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#4
11-01-2007, 05:53 PM
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Re: nl 50 set turn
It looks like he has a monster to me. What does he think you're raising to $6 with? Almost always not something you want to give up, so he's trying to play a huge pot. He's not going to think the 2 helped you so he thinks you slowplayed a great hand on the flop.
I expect straight 50% higher set 20% (thinks he has outs to your possible straight) 2 pair 10% bluff 20% He's not likely going to put in that raise with 2 pair when you could be the one who slowplayed the straight on the flop. If he puts you on just an overpair I don't think he'd put in a bet that high because it would be an easy fold.
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#6
11-01-2007, 06:13 PM
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Re: nl 50 set turn
That is a very high AF for villain. If his AF wasn't that high, I would maybe reconsider shoving, but he may be trying to push you off a hand. He could have a set, straight, 2 pair, or straight draw. I would shove.
The thing that bothers me about his play is his re-raise on the turn. If he is thinking at all about opponents bets and what they mean, he isn't reraising with a lot that you beat. I would still shove and note his 3-betting hand strength postflop.
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#7
11-01-2007, 06:34 PM
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Re: nl 50 set turn
Call and call his river shove. Or push if he checks. He won't.
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#8
11-01-2007, 06:49 PM
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Re: nl 50 set turn
[ QUOTE ]
Villain looks quite aggressive to me. I get it in here and expect to see two pair or even an overpair as well as sets and the straight. [/ QUOTE ] I agree with this, and I think you can add a9, k9, q9hh etc to his possible holdings; i tend to have stats like this and I would def put big pressure on with hands like these. Get it in here and feel good about it
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#9
11-01-2007, 06:57 PM
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Re: nl 50 set turn
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] It looks like he has a monster to me. [/ QUOTE ] AF = 12 Easy shove. [/ QUOTE ] I didn't realize how off the chart that AF was. Maybe I should expect: straight/higher set 30% 2 pair 20% bluff 50% Now to call or shove? At this point you have to concentrate on him having air. If he doesn't have air the money is all going in anyway. If you call he's mostly going to shove the river, and I think that's more likely than him calling your all in 3-bet on the turn with air.
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#10
11-01-2007, 07:15 PM
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Re: nl 50 set turn
You could make a case for calling as you keep his range wide enough in case he is so much of a maniac that he is bluffing, or that he has top pair. However, I like pushing because even though it obviously folds out air and possibly one pair, the trade off is getting max value now vs decent holdings as there are some nasty river cards. If the board comes out a 5,9, T or even a heart you almost have to call a shove but its gross.
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