QQ nl50 bet river??

ScarfaceGER · #1 10-29-2007, 02:11 PM

Sb is 12/8/5 over 150 hands

OnGame's Room No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (5 handed) by Hand Converter CG

saw flop|saw showdown

MP ($64.30)
Button ($49.25)
SB ($27.85)
BB ($47.70)
Hero ($49.10)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
Hero raises to $2, MP folds, Button folds, SB calls $1.75, BB folds.

Flop: ($4.50) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $3, SB calls $3.

Turn: ($10.50) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks.

River: ($10.50) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero ??

ceck hehind b/f b/c?????

Profish2285 · #2 10-29-2007, 02:13 PM

I see value in bet/folding here. Does SB really check with the A three times? I would bet like 5 or so here and expect a call from a ten.

Shaver67 · #3 10-29-2007, 02:15 PM

Check behind- 12/8 villian is never calling with a worse hand or folding a better one (maybe he has KK once in a blue moon, but not often enough to bet) and obv any sort of bluff cr (however unlikely) is a disaster for us.

Profish2285 · #4 10-29-2007, 02:18 PM

I dont think the sample size is big enough to make such a definitive statement shaver. I think assuming he will never call with worse is wrong. He has shown absolutely no strength throughout the entire hand and youre giving him credit for KK and trip aces purely on his stats. I am going to assume KK re raises pf, so that is discounted. Is an A possible? Yes. Is it likely how the hand went down? No.

bsball8806 · #5 10-29-2007, 02:19 PM

I feel like his check means he doesn't have an A or KK. I bet like 4-6 to induce a call from JJ or a strong 10. The very small chance he c/r this river imo is outweighed by the fact that he'll call with worse occasionally.

Profish2285 · #6 10-29-2007, 02:22 PM

Oh, and if this is how he plays trip aces, please make a note on this terrible player. One more thing, if he truly has trip aces, why the hell would he not bet on the river at least? What makes him assume you are going to bet again on the river? He doesnt know we have QQ, so he cant assume anything. Wow, just wow if he plays an A like this. I could even understand the flop check, but any decent player is going to raise due to draws. Assuming he doesnt, how can anyone just check the turn and river with an A? But like I said, this is still a bet/fold regardless. I doubt he is going to check raise with worse on the river, but I feel he can definitely CALL with worse.

Shaver67 · #7 10-29-2007, 02:35 PM

ok, i'll give you never is a bit strong but where are we getting value from- med pairs? when this villain calls flop what can he have? some tens, maybe some KQ, QJ and med pairs (and 88 just got there) - granted i don't think he has us beat either, but i think the value (when it exists) is quite thin and requires a good read. since if we bet the river what does a tight villain put us on (i.e what's our image)? can he call with 99 or JT? if he's prone to looking us up for one reason or another I can find a bet, but we weren't given that info...

I could be missing value in such spots, I certainly miss value on the river periodically- but I'm not yet convinced we're called ahead enough here to overcome the occasional uber-slowplay/88/bluff

kurto · #8 10-29-2007, 02:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Oh, and if this is how he plays trip aces, please make a note on this terrible player. One more thing, if he truly has trip aces, why the hell would he not bet on the river at least? What makes him assume you are going to bet again on the river? He doesnt know we have QQ, so he cant assume anything. Wow, just wow if he plays an A like this. I could even understand the flop check, but any decent player is going to raise due to draws. Assuming he doesnt, how can anyone just check the turn and river with an A? But like I said, this is still a bet/fold regardless. I doubt he is going to check raise with worse on the river, but I feel he can definitely CALL with worse.

[/ QUOTE ]

What if he has a medium ace? I think he's playing it right. If he bets, he folds out any underpairs. Anyone who beats him is going to call or raise. If he has a weak ace and gets someone to bet here with a pair of queens, then didn't he get maximum value?

I think the only hands you're valuebetting the river that villain might have and call is JJ.

I like a checkbehind on the river.

Profish2285 · #9 10-29-2007, 02:37 PM

There are definitely hands that call us. All tens, possibly mid pairs, and JJ. All of these will call because we have also slowed down by checking the turn. By doing this, this makes our range look weaker as well, and most villains respond to river bets differently depending on the turn action.

Shaver67 · #10 10-29-2007, 02:46 PM

Another question, what tens does a 12/8 CC OOP with here? (with any regularity) KTo/QTo are highly unlikely to be in his range- so what are the strong tens? K-JTs? alot of 12/8s are probably folding those OOP. no, 150 hands isn't a huge sample but 12/8 over 150 hands isn't an accident either- he's standard tight to very tight- which makes it seem to me we *can* get called by JJ/99/77/and K-JTs but certainly don't always because he has to put us on less than that- which if we look reasonable is going to be difficult.

edited to add JJ