AK on the Button

[Fantam]

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I thought it looked prtty spewy myself

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LOL, Looks like your opponent was even more spewy ! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[Smurph64]

KT or KJ are the most likely holdings here. I have to call donk number 3.

[bozlax]

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I don't think the river raise is bad, I think you shoulda capped. He has KJ.

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Your thought process is ok, DM, except that you seem to be trying to narrow down Villan's range to "hands Hero beats" to justify your a predetermined action (capping the river). There is a tendancy among noobs to narrow Villan's holdings to either "hands I beat" or "hands that beat me" to justify spewy raising or weak-tight folding, depending on what you think the action should be. You need to include BOTH groups of hands and then decide which group is more likely to decide on your action.

So, here's an exercise: go street-by-street and give Villan a hand range. Preflop, for instance, all we really know is he's a 28 VPIP/0 PFR, so while he's probably not got AA/KK he could have just about any connectors, any pp, etc. How can we narrow that once he donks the KQx flop? Can we narrow it further when he bets the J turn? And when he continues to bet the river? When you're narrowing the range, tell us what it is that makes you narrow it in that fashion. (Hint: removing KT/QT/JT from his range on the turn because you don't think he'd donkbet a pair + OESD is unreasonable, given that if he held any of those hands on the flop he'd already donkbet a WORSE hand than he now holds.) (Edit: note also that Villan might have picked up a flushdraw on the turn, possibly a straightflush draw....)

EXTRA CREDIT: SHOULD HERO HAVE CALLED THE TURN (take into account that some of Hero's outs might be in Villan's hand)? Should Hero maybe have raised the turn?

Edit 2: in IM, DM asked me if he should assume that Villan plays the way he would. (I asked him if he'd have limped KJ/QJ preflop.) In this case, luckily, we have a little additional information that enables us to say that this Villan likely would limp those hands pf (as they're in the top third of starting hands, and he limps/coldcalls EVERYTHING), but in cases where I don't know anything I certainly don't asusme that a Villan is going to limp 84o.

[Sushiglutton]

Turn is a very bad card for us so no more value there. After he bets the river his range is still pretty wide:

AA,KK,AK,AT,KQ,KJ,KT,QJ,QT,JT

Maybe some other combos, AQ perhaps. He may have limped the big pairs and didn't reraise since it was HU. Often the turn donk means that he has improved in some way. Question is how many of these hands he will limp pf. He seems rather loose so maybe all. Anyway since we basically need 66% equity if we can't fold to a 3-bet, I don't think the river raise can be good.

[Landonfan]

Jesus, don't raise that river. Just call down from his turn donk.

[neurotiq]

I'd call river.

[R*R]

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call the river, don't raise.

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