Question about upswing

[Nickerbocker]

This might be the stupidest question ever asked. I dunno. Anyways I went through a helacious downswing and to the tune of 10 buyins a few weeks ago. From what I can tell now it's starting to come back up(you know, flopping sets ever other hand, AA/KK every 40 hands, boats filling up against straight.) In other words im running pretty hot right now. So i've got 2 questions I guess. 1) how long can I expect this to last and 2) I satellited into a pretty big tourney, the biggest ive ever been in, so is there any notion to "saving" my upswing for the tourney because I play 5/10c right now and I dont want to be running super hot there and then come tourney time i go cold. Anyone?

[MJBuddy]

You could run good for the rest of your life and become a billionaire..




Odds are not dictated by past odds, you could also go busto running bad.

[Silent A]

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1) how long can I expect this to last

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You can't expect it to last a single extra hand, unless the reason for your upswing is that you found a nest of terrible players. In which case, your upswing will last as long as they stay at your table.

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I satellited into a pretty big tourney, the biggest ive ever been in, so is there any notion to "saving" my upswing for the tourney because I play 5/10c right now and I dont want to be running super hot there and then come tourney time i go cold. Anyone?

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No, there is absolutely no basis for trying to "save" your upswing for the tournament.

Upswings happen for one of two basic reasons:

1) you simply get lucky and hit a hot streak. How long these streaks last is completely random. Nothing you can do can effect how long they will last or when they will return.

2) you are playing against inferior/tilting opponents. As I said before, your upswing will last as long as they stay at your table (or stop tilting).

Notice how neither of these apply to a future tournament.

[InVogue]

LOL i wish this was the case. id go from playing .02-.04 to .25-.50!!! haha just kiddding

[BadgerPro]

[ QUOTE ]
I satellited into a pretty big tourney, the biggest ive ever been in, so is there any notion to "saving" my upswing for the tourney because I play 5/10c right now and I dont want to be running super hot there and then come tourney time i go cold. Anyone?

[/ QUOTE ]

Is this a serious post?

If you really think that you can 'save your upswing' for a certain tourney you have a lot to learn about variance.

[Bond18]

Nicker, inanimate objects have no memory. That is, just because the roulette wheel hit red the last 18 rolls doesn't change the odds of it coming up red/black again.

Same with your 'upswing'. It could end 2 seconds from now, it could end 2 decades from now. THERE IS NO PATTERN.

[stevepa]

[ QUOTE ]
Nicker, inanimate objects have no memory. That is, just because the roulette wheel hit red the last 18 rolls doesn't change the odds of it coming up red/black again.

Same with your 'upswing'. It could end 2 seconds from now, it could end 2 decades from now. THERE IS NO PATTERN.

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This kind of tripe is exactly how bond convinced us to keep staking him. DON'T MAKE THE SAME MISTAKE WE DID

edit: I'm not convinced this post makes any sense. I'm going to bed.

[ZJ123]

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This kind of tripe is exactly how bond convinced us to keep staking him. DON'T MAKE THE SAME MISTAKE WE DID


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awesome.

[Bond18]

LOL, suckers.